Don’t Trust The Box Score: Bhayshul Tuten Looks Special
The Box Score Lies. The Film Doesn't.
Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Every week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than their stats indicate.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bhayshul Tuten failed to score a TD over the last two weeks, finishing as the RB28 in PPR in Week 4 and RB23 in Week 5.
But that hides just how good he has been. Tuten’s film against the Eagles shows an RB who ran better than his 3.3 yards per carry would indicate.
He appears on the verge of becoming an RB1 with more scoring opportunities.
Tuten rushes off-tackle with zone blocking. He keeps his eyes on the back side of the O-line for a cutback lane while the defense closes. Tuten makes a smooth cut, shifting his weight back to the right to gain momentum.
He cuts again straight upfield as the hole opens, completing a 12-yard run and getting to the third level of the defense.
Tuten’s explosiveness and cutting ability, combined with improved vision from last year, make him dangerous with competent blocking. That continued throughout the game.
Tuten takes this toss play, keeping his eyes on the O-line as he catches the ball. He doesn’t shift his eyes from the middle of the line until taking a cut to the left to go outside.
Edge A.J. Epenesa reads Tuten’s eyes and crashes the line, which gives Tuten the space to get past the edge. He cuts upfield until he is wrestled down from behind by LB Jihaad Campbell.
Tuten has used his eyes and athleticism to pick up big chunks of yardage all season.
Eye manipulation rarely gets mentioned in an RB’s skill set, but Tuten seldom gives away where he plans to cut or which holes he will hit. That makes it much harder for defenders to choose the right gaps to fill.
Tuten also flashes receiving talent, continuing to earn more opportunities.
After the snap, Tuten moves through the line and turns around as Trevor Lawrence’s checkdown. He recognizes the zone coverage, with the two LBs sitting in a shallow zone just beyond him.
Lawrence tosses it as he gets pulled to the ground. Tuten catches the ball then starts moving laterally to try to evade these LBs. He successfully breaks a tackle and gets to the edge to pick up a few extra yards.
Tuten has mainly been used in the passing game as a checkdown option, but his savvy after the catch could lead to more routes where he can be an early read. Lawrence appears to trust Tuten as a receiver.
Tuten has shown that he can hold up to punishment as well. He takes this carry and leans back smoothly into the curve of the O-line.
He appears to expect Parker Washington to make a block to spring a big play up the middle. Instead, Washington makes little effort and Tuten gets crushed by Jalyx Hunt.
Tuten could have squeezed closer to the O-line if he anticipated Hunt going unblocked, though it likely would have resulted in only an extra yard or 2.
Buy the Backfield Takeover
Overall, the film was very positive on Tuten, both in Week 5 and throughout the season so far.
The Jaguars seem to have identified Tuten as the RB who gives them the best chance to score. Over the last two weeks, he has 39 carries and 5 targets, while the rest of the Jaguars RBs have just 8 carries and 3 targets.
That’s 80% of the RB opportunities in the last two weeks.
Tuten’s advanced vision and cutting ability on film, combined with that volume, continue to make him a buy in every league type.
Makai Lemon, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles drafted Lemon 20th overall in anticipation that he could fill the hole left by A.J. Brown. The early results don’t look positive. He sits as WR84 at 5.1 PPR points per game. That trails teammates Dontayvion Wicks (WR35) and Darius Cooper (WR47).
But the stats don’t tell the full story. On film, Lemon continues to gain separation, win after the catch, and show NFL-level body control.
Lemon runs a hook route while reading the shallow zone of the LBs in the middle of the field. He runs the route at a depth to get behind them, though LB Foyesade Oluokun retreats back to close that off.
Lemon takes his cut then leans into the opening away from Oluokun. Jalen Hurts leads Lemon a bit too much, but Lemon leaps to make a perfect extended-hands catch. He gets clocked by Oluokun, but hangs onto the ball for a first down.
Lemon’s body control and ball skills were a huge part of his first-round draft stock. They are translating on film as he gets more opportunities.
Lemon has also been effective after the catch when given a little bit of space.
He runs a drag route here and adjusts to catch a ball slightly low and behind him. Lemon doesn’t break stride, though, and turns upfield.
Along the boundary, he takes advantage of Dontayvion Wicks standing in front of CB Jarrian Jones. Lemon squeezes between the two of them and the sideline as Oluokun dives to grab him.
Lemon fights through that contact, staying in bounds. His momentum also allowed him to carry Travis Hunter a few extra yards for an 18-yard pickup.
Lemon’s savvy vision to take the right angle along the sideline got him past the first-down marker. Then, his toughness and momentum carried him an extra 6 yards. The Eagles would benefit from more short passes to Lemon allowing him to use that after-catch ability for easy gains.
But, even when those have been schemed, Lemon seems ignored.
Lemon goes in motion on this play, revealing the defense’s zone coverage and freeing him underneath to run a whip route back inside.
Lemon was never a read in the progression. Instead, Hurts forces the ball inside to a covered Zach Ertz, and the pass falls incomplete.
This second-and-10 play would have been a great time to get the ball in Lemon’s hands and at least create a third-and-manageable, with a pass in stride giving him a chance to get close to the sticks.
Lemon Looks Like a Dynasty Buy
Lemon’s talent certainly shows up on film, the Eagles just need to use it more. When they have used him in motion to create mismatches, he is open (though the ball doesn’t usually come his way).
He did get some flak for going out of bounds after a catch with 21 seconds left, leaving time on the clock for the Jaguars to come back and win the game late. OC Sean Mannion dismissed the criticism from fans and the media, but there certainly could still be mental growth needed for Lemon.
Another potential production issue may just be the Eagles offense and Hurts’ passing tendencies. Lemon runs a lot of slants, ins, hooks, and other routes into the middle of the field, where he gains spacing. Hurts’ progressions rarely start there, which means Lemon isn’t getting targeted much even when he is open.
Despite the issues, Lemon looks like a buy in dynasty leagues if managers have soured on the lack of early return. He could even be a deeper stash in redraft leagues in case meaningful growth comes this season.
Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears
Luther Burden drew plenty of hype this offseason as the potential slot WR in HC Ben Johnson’s offense. So far, the results haven’t quite met the expectations of his WR24 ADP.
Burden sits at WR30 in PPR points per game. Part of the reason may be Caleb Williams playing only one full game so far, but Burden still finished just WR37 that week.
But Williams looks set to return as soon as this week, and Burden still shows the separation ability on film that made him effective in college and as a rookie. He has also shown improvement in identifying zone coverage, which could spur better fantasy performances later in the season.
Burden saw 26% of his rookie-year targets come via screen, and he continues to be one of the best screen WRs I’ve watched this season.
He goes in motion behind Tyson Bagent and settles. As the pass comes in, Burden adjusts his positioning to catch it in front of him and set up to accelerate after the catch.
That allows him to get to full speed quickly and hit the hole. It also creates enough zip to get past first contact for a few extra yards.
Those small details make Burden very effective on WR screens and short passes that scheme him open.
One major improvement from Burden this season has been his adjustment when plays are extended.
Burden runs a hook route and looks back to Case Keenum. The pocket had already collapsed by the time he finished the route, with Keenum moving right. Burden quickly adjusts as the play extends to get behind the LBs’ zone coverage.
Burden moves into the open zone and Keenum hits him for an easy completion.
Last year, Burden would just sit where the play took him too often, even as Caleb Williams moved outside the pocket. This season, Burden seems to have a much better feel for how to keep moving and become QB friendly.
Burden has also gotten better at adjusting his route against zone coverage to work into open areas.
He runs this drag against Cover-3, gets between the LB and nickel CB, and then settles into that zone. That leaves him as the checkdown for Bagent if needed.
Ultimately, Bagent decides to take a deeper shot to Rome Odunze, but this again shows an area of improvement for Burden from his rookie season to this year.
Burden Breakout Could Be Coming
Burden remains a talented WR who continues to show improvement in his route running, zone identification, and the nuances of catching the ball. I still see an arrow trending up as Williams nears a return.
But Burden’s role could limit that upside. Here’s how his usage has compared with Kalif Raymond so far.
| Snaps | Snap Share | Routes | ||
| Luther Burden | 246 | 64.8% | 147 | |
| Kalif Raymond | 239 | 63.2% | 129 |
Williams’ return should mean at least a bit more passing, and there’s room for Burden to improve his efficiency. He posted a higher catch rate and more yards after catch per reception as a rookie than he has so far this season.
Mid-WR2 production appears within reach for the talented second-year wideout.
