Fantasy Football Dynasty

Dynasty Player Spotlight: C.J. Stroud

By C. H. Herms 4:08pm EST 11/20/23

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Best Rookie QB Season Ever?

It’s not like Texans QB C.J. Stroud came out of nowhere.

The former Ohio State Buckeye was the second pick of the draft. And he probably went second or third among QBs in the first round of your rookie drafts.

Still, it made sense not to expect a lot right away. The Texans are led by a first-time HC and OC (DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik) and don’t boast a roster full of established playmakers.

But those factors seem to not have mattered. This dude is absolutely killing it.

Stroud ranks:

• second in passing yards (2,962)
• tied for fourth in passing TDs (17)
• and fourth among QBs in expected points added (85.99)

His numbers are even more impressive from a historical perspective.

Among rookie QBs since 2000, Stroud ranks:

• first in passing yards per game (296.2)
• first in adjusted yards per attempt (8.67)
• fifth in passer rating (99.3)
• 11th in TD rate (4.8%)
• eighth in INT rate (1.4%)

He’s on pace to break Andrew Luck’s rookie-record passing yards mark (4,374) by a healthy margin (5,035.4) and approach Justin Herbert’s rookie passing TD record of 31. (Stroud’s on pace for 28.9.)

Inside the Numbers

Stroud compares favorably with other recent strong rookie-QB performances. He’s averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game in formats that give 4 points per passing TD and 1 point per 25 yards passing.

Some other notables within the past 10 years:

• Deshaun Watson, 2017: 24.1 PPG (seven games)
• Justin Herbert, 2020: 22.2 PPG (15 games)
• Dak Prescott, 2016: 17.9 PPG (16 games)
• Kyler Murray 2019: 17.8 PPG (16 games)

There’s already reason to view him as a high-end QB asset in dynasty.

Watson, Herbert, and Murray were all valued in the QB4-QB6 range in August startup drafts ahead of their second seasons, according to Dynasty League Football ADP.

We have Stroud at QB6 in our dynasty rankings already.

Stroud’s numbers look a lot like Joe Burrow’s rookie year:

Draft Sharks analyst Kevin English made the Burrow comp in Stroud’s rookie profile this offseason.

Looking Forward

If you drafted Stroud this spring, congratulations!

If you didn’t but need a QB, don’t be afraid to “buy high.”

Stroud’s numbers suggest he’s likely to continue producing. Sure, he doesn’t have an uber-talented WR like Ja’Marr Chase locked in for the future like Burrow does, but it’s not as though the Texans are barren.

Nico Collins won’t hit free agency until 2025, and rookie sensation Tank Dell is signed through 2026.

Each of these players currently ranks within the top 20 of receiving yards and PPR points per game among WRs this season and still has room to grow.

The Texans also hold the Browns’ 2024 first-round pick from the Deshaun Watson trade and are projected to have the fourth-most available cap space ($73.4 million) this offseason, per Spotrac.

You should get out there and send offers now.

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