Patrick Mahomes' Knee Just One of Many Questions Chiefs Must Answer

Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Eric Bieniemy replaces OC Matt Nagy

PATRICK MAHOMES

2025 Role & Results

Mahomes Came Through on a Per-Game Basis

Mahomes completed 315 of 502 passes for 3,567 yards with 22 TDs and 11 INTs, adding 422 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 64 carries.

Mahomes finished QB11 in total points over 14 games but QB4 in points per game. That finish fell more in line with early-career Mahomes: 

But Still Had One of His Worst Passing Seasons

The per-game average was high, but the underlying passing metrics tell a more complicated story.  Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Mahomes posted career lows in:

One clear shift showed up in Mahomes' average depth of target:

After leaning on shorter passes 2021-2024, Mahomes worked further down the field last season. Throwing deeper creates more variance and more incompletions, which also tracks with his completion-rate decline.

The TD rate decline is just as concerning. Mahomes averaged a 6.5% TD rate under Eric Bieniemy from 2018 to 2022, but that number has fallen to 4.5% over the past three seasons. Bieniemy returns in 2026, though the recent drop still points to bigger offensive issues in Kansas City. 

The Chiefs Offense Has Struggled To Score

Kansas City's scoring has fallen off since 2022, settling near the middle of the league after spending Mahomes' first five seasons near the top:

His Legs Saved the Fantasy Finish

The increase in rushing elevated Mahomes's fantasy scoring in 2025. He derived 22% of his fantasy points from rushing last season, well above his norm:

Mahomes set career highs in nearly every rushing category. He rushed for 422 yards and 6.6 yards per carry. Previously, he had never topped 5.9 yards per carry in a single season. His rushing TDs also spiked up to 5. He only topped 2 rushing TDs once in his career (4 in 2022).  

That kind of overall rushing spike usually doesn't last, especially now that Kenneth Walker III gives the Chiefs a much bigger backfield threat. 

But the Season Ended in Disaster

Mahomes tore his left ACL and LCL in Week 15, putting his 2026 rushing outlook in doubt with Week 1 arriving just nine months later. 

2026 Opportunity & Projection

The Knee Could Limit Him Early

The knee injury is the first issue. Mahomes is expected to play Week 1, but a QB recovering from a significant knee injury presents risk. He might not be 100% early in the season, and any hit to his mobility would likely drag down his rushing. 

Mahomes would obviously need to make up for any regression in his rushing production by boosting the passing.

Same Weapons, Same Questions

The returning pass catchers are familiar, but none comes without questions. 

WR Rashee Rice was elite in eight games last season, ranking fifth among WRs in PPR points per game with a 26.5% target share and a league-leading 8.2 yards after the catch per reception. 

He has also played just 27 games over the past three seasons because of a suspension, a concussion, and an LCL tear. He heads toward the season having spent 30 offseason days in jail while rehabbing May knee surgery.  

WR Xavier Worthy ranked 53rd in PFF receiving grade and 58th in yards per route run, falling well short of expectations for a 2024 first-round pick. This was a step down from Worthy’s rookie year. He’ll require a third year leap in development to show he can be a viable fantasy WR.

TE Travis Kelce heads into his age-37 season and risks a continued trend downward. His 1.47 yards per route run was a career low, and his target share dropped from 22.8% in 2024 to 18.5%.

Walker’s Arrival Could Spell More Rushing

Kenneth Walker's arrival via free agency is the other key variable. Walker averaged 4.6 yards per carry for Seattle in 2025. He finished the season with 417 total yards and 4 TDs in the playoffs en route to becoming Super Bowl MVP. He worked as the Seahawks workhorse RB with 80.24% carry share during the playoffs. 

Bringing in a legitimate workhorse back could shift Kansas City toward a more balanced approach, which could reduce Mahomes's pass volume in an offense that ranked seventh in pass attempts. 

Bieniemy's History Says Throw

Bieniemy is back after serving as the Chiefs' OC from 2018 to 2022. Andy Reid will still call plays, but Reid has credited Bieniemy with making a major offensive impact. Bieniemy typically was in charge of weekly game planning and playbook implementation and should be an improvement over former OC Matt Nagy.

Bieniemy leaned heavily on throwing the ball as the OC. But, he did operate a Chiefs offense in his previous stint with Tyreek Hill as the star WR through 2021 and a struggling run game. 

Mahomes finished as a top-6 fantasy QB in every Bieniemy season, and the Chiefs posted a pass rate over 61% each year he was on the staff: 

He certainly could help Mahomes get closer to his early production.

Mahomes Talent Creates the Ceiling

Mahomes has finished six of his eight starting seasons among fantasy’s top 6 scorers in points per game, through changes to the coaching staff and surrounding personnel. Even though 2026 finds the new challenge of returning from a torn ACL, we can’t say Mahomes doesn’t have the potential to return to the top 6.

That said, it’ll be a challenge. The knee repair likely means a downturn in rushing production, which was already likely given last year’s career highs in both rushing yards and rushing TDs. And that means Mahomes will need to make up for it with passing.

Early-career Mahomes found him consistently delivering more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt through a mix of downfield connections and after-catch production. A full, healthy season for Rice will be key, and the QB will need a better version of Worthy than he got last year.

Given those needs, the knee, and Kelce’s advancing age, Mahomes’ realistic ceiling probably lands somewhere in the bottom half of QB1 territory.

Recent Struggles Plus the Knee Creates Risk

The risk starts with Mahomes' knee. He could miss time or simply be less effective, and the offense has already trended down over the past few years. 

A lesser Mahomes plus a lack of rebound for the passing game could leave the QB languishing in QB2 territory.

KENNETH WALKER III

2025 Role & Results

Raw Production was Just OK

Walker's 2025 regular season was solid but unspectacular in a Seattle offense that didn't fully lean on him. 

Walker handled 221 carries for 1,027 yards and 5 TDs, added 282 receiving yards. He split work with Zach Charbonnet until Charbonnet tore an ACL in the playoffs.

Walker finished RB22 in total PPR points, averaging 11.3 per game (RB28). That was the worst per-game fantasy finish of his career:

Walker Stayed Strong In Limited Role

The raw numbers undersell his ability. Walker’s usage was inconsistent while his efficiency metrics showed real improvement. Here’s how Walker has ranked, by season, among RBs with 50+ carries:   

Walker kept his yards after contact per attempt in line with past seasons while improving his yards per carry. His PFF run grade took a leap from 2023 to 2024 and has stayed near the top of the league for the past two seasons as well. 

Walker also saw his breakaway run percentage (rushes of 15+ yards) jump back up after falling in 2024. Throughout most of his career Walker has been an explosive runner who can pick up large chunk of yardage and he showed that in 2025.

His receiving profile also was strong. Walker ranked 12th among running backs in yards per route run at 1.44, averaged 9.1 yards per reception (seventh), and averaged 11.0 yards after catch per reception, third among all running backs. 

Don’t Forget About Past Injuries

Injury history is the obvious caveat. Walker missed six games in 2024 with ankle, calf, and oblique injuries after also missing time in 2023 with oblique, ankle, and groin issues. 

He also missed two games in 2022 with an ankle and groin injury and entered 2025 with foot soreness that caused him to miss time in training camp. Walker and the Seahawks seemed to manage that issue well, at least, because it didn’t impact his regular-season availability.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Big Contract Shows Trust

Walker signed a three-year $43 million contract, ranking sixth among RBs at $14.35 million in annual average.

The money points clearly to Walker taking over, and the depth chart presents little resistance. Brashard Smith returns after logging just 44 carries (at 3.4 yards per rush) and 25 catches (6.9 per reception) as a rookie. He benefited from WR Rashee Rice’s early-season suspension, compiling 9 catches before Rice returned and five more in Rice’s return game, a 31-0 drubbing of the Raiders.

The Chiefs added fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson and Emari Demercado, who averaged just 3.2 carries and 1.3 catches per game across three years in Arizona. Both guys will need to prove that they matter for 2026.

Walker Offers a Potential RB Upgrade

Chiefs RBs haven’t made major PPR impacts over the past few seasons. Here is where the Chiefs RBs scored as a collective in each season since 2018:

The Chiefs RB scoring has been volatile since 2018 with Patrick Mahomes at QB. But there have been three seasons among the top 10 total team scoring in RB PPR points, showing RB scoring can certainly work alongside Mahomes at QB.

The situation may be a bit volatile, but Walker getting the large bulk of touches at RB could push him to the RB1 type scoring we have seen from Chiefs RBs collectively in the past. 

The Chiefs have also consistently ranked outside the top 10 in RB target share over the past five years:

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though, even for the team’s new lead RB.

Neither Walker nor any of his new buddies on the K.C. depth chart is the kind of receiver who will command a large segment of the passing plan. Frankly, if these Chiefs start throwing to their RBs a lot more, then the offense is probably in trouble.

The real question for Walker will be how large a slice of the backfield targets he gets. If he can fight off Demercado, Smith, and Johnson for the lead share of RB targets, then he’ll be fine. The more passing-situation work he cedes to others, though, the more Walker will need high efficiency and scoring opportunities on the ground.

His new O-line is coming off a mere No. 25 ranking in ESPN run-block win rate, a long way from Seattle’s No. 8 ranking last season. Walker will need better than that to maximize his output.

Mahomes Keeps Kansas City Airborne

The pass rate history in Kansas City also matters:

Kansas City has finished top 10 in pass rate every year with Mahomes. Even with Walker aboard, we shouldn’t expect a Reid-Mahomes offense to go run-heavy.

Kansas City Could Finally Unleash Him

Walker's ceiling is a top-five fantasy RB finish. He could dominate RB touches in a way Seattle never allowed, being the best scoring Chiefs RB in recent history. Walker’s playoff performance shows his potential as a workhorse RB and the situation with Patirck Mahomes has supported top collective RB scoring in the past. Walker continuing upward from that strong playoff performance could move him up into the top tier of fantasy scoring RBs this season. 

But Will the Offense Keep Trending Down?

The risk is straightforward: Walker could show that he was just a committee back who got lucky in a small playoff sample last season. He could fail to meet expectations, especially if the Chiefs offense struggles to score again this season. 

Walker also has an injury history that could resurface under heavier volume. He needs both good health and an offensive rebound to pay off.

RASHEE RICE

2025 Role & Results

Rice Came Through When Actually on the Field

Rashee Rice caught 53 of 78 targets for 571 yards and 5 TDs. He also ran the ball five times for 20 yards and a TD. 

Rice's 2025 season lasted just eight games due to a six-game suspension and missing the final three games with a concussion. He still ranked fifth among WRs in PPR points per game with top-12 finishes in five of those eight contests, delivering his best per-game production to date:

Rice Commands Plenty of Targets

Rice thrived on a strong target share and elite after-catch production. Over eight games, Rice commanded 26.5% of targets, 12th among 104 WRs with 50+ targets. He also ranked third in targets per route run at 0.291. He led the entire league in yards after catch per reception at 7.98.

Rice doesn't need a deep target profile to produce. His 4.9-yard average depth of target ranked 75th because Kansas City used him almost entirely underneath, essentially treating those catches like an extension of the run game. 

His 2.15 yards per route ranked 15th among all wide receivers. And strong target shares have arrived consistently when Rice has been on the field:

Rice has become the lead pass catcher through his first three seasons.

Off-Field Issues Shouldn’t Impact 2026

The off-field issues still belong in the conversation. Rice was arrested after leaving a high-speed crash in Dallas in 2024, which led to his six-game suspension in 2025, and he served 30 days in jail this May after violating probation with a positive marijuana test. Nothing currently suggests it will affect his 2026 availability, but the character risk hasn't disappeared.

Injuries factor in as well. Rice missed the final two games last season with a concussion after an LCL tear cost him the final 13 games of 2024.

He also had knee surgery in May to clean up some debris in his knee. It isn’t expected to limit his availability, but worth noting after Rice’s recent injury issues. 

2026 Opportunity & Projection

The Underneath Role Still Belongs to Rice

The target competition in Kansas City remains largely unchanged for Rice.

TE Travis Kelce heads into his age-37 season and risks a continued trend downward. His 1.47 yards per route run was a career low, and his target share dropped from 22.8% in 2024 to 18.5% last year with work shifting back to the WRs. He still finished as TE9 in PPR PPG.  

Worthy managed just a 16.1% target share and finished WR60 in points per game. His 12.8 aDOT makes him more of a deep threat than a real challenger to Rice's underneath role. Worthy had a 15.0% target share last season in games where Rashee Rice played. That was well behind Rice’s 26.5%. It is also in line with the 16.0% target share for Worthy in his rookie season. He doesn’t represent much threat to Rice’s workload. 

Kenneth Walker Is the New Variable

The one potential impact to Rice is new RB Kenneth Walker. Walker showcased receiving ability (1.44 YPRR, 12th among RBs) establishing him as a better receiving back than the Chiefs have had since Rice arrived in 2023. Walker also ranked 18th in targets per route run (0.22) last season including the playoffs, showing some trust in him as a receiver. Walker’s -1.4 aDOT last year in Seattle shows that he operated on dump-offs behind the line. 

RB targets were closely tied to Rice’s availability last season. RBs had an 18% target share in games with Rice. That increase to 27.0% in games with Mahomes had QB during Rice’s suspension. 

Walker’s presence could also cut into Rice’s targets. Short passes to Rice replaced rushing attempts or short RB targets at times last season. Those could go down if Walker shows efficiency rushing the ball.

Ceiling Lies in Staying Healthy for a Full Season

We already know Rice can deliver top-12 numbers. We’ve seen that over the past two years, albeit in limited samples.

If he plays a full season with a competent Mahomes, the ceiling reaches into the position’s top 6 in PPR scoring.

Short Passes May Turn Back Into Runs

The biggest risk is Kansas City shifting some of its short game back to the run now that Walker is in town. That would threaten Rice's target volume. The injury plus off-field concerns are still part of the package. His repaired knee in 2024 and clean-up surgery this past May presents that injury risk, though he is expected to be ready for the preseason.

XAVIER WORTHY

2025 Role & Results

Worthy Underwhelmed Again

Worthy caught 42 of 73 targets for 532 yards and a TD in 2025.

He finished WR59 in 2025 with 109.9 PPR points across 14 games, averaging 7.9 points per game (WR67). That marked a tumble from the 11.0 PPR points per game (WR41) of his rookie season.

4.21 Speed Hasn't Created Production

His target share across 13 games (excluding Week 1 when Worthy injured his shoulder in the first quarter) was 16.1%, which ranked 45th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

The shoulder injury cost him the next two games and plagued him throughout the season. He indicated that it limited what he could do all season. He had surgery on the shoulder in January and remained in a no-contact jersey through spring workouts.

His efficiency numbers across both seasons show a player who hasn't improved in any meaningful category:

Worthy's 4.21 speed showed up in his role, giving him the deepest aDOT among Chiefs WRs. 

The YAC decline is particularly notable, though. Worthy flashed legitimate after-catch upside in 2024 (7.1 YAC per reception, 10th), but that number dropped to 4.9 in 2025 while his YAC over expected fell to dead last among qualifying receivers. 

The deeper aDOT almost certainly impacted the YAC/rec decline. The shorter the target, the more the play relies on after-catch gains. But his tumble in YAC vs. expectation shows he deserved some blame as well.

Of course, Worthy’s higher number in 2024 still ranked just 54th. So he has yet to show much NFL aptitude in that area.

Rice Helped … a Little

Worthy actually performed slightly better when Rashee Rice was on the field:

That means you should at least not worry about a healthier season for Rice hurting Worthy’s fantasy outlook. Indeed, there’s a chance that having Rice on the field helps Worthy by boosting the offense on whole and drawing defensive focus.

Leveraging that into a meaningful production increase would still rely on Worthy improving his play, and perhaps a role shift that would include more short-to-intermediate targets to enhance his catch total.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Target Competition Remains Similar

The target competition doesn't change much for Worthy. 

Rice returns as the clear No. 1 after posting a 26.5% target share in eight full games last season. His 4.9 aDOT versus Worthy's 12.5 shows how different their jobs are, and Rice should keep owning the short-area role.

Travis Kelce remains the primary tight end and commanded an 18.5% target share in 2025, but his numbers are declining. His 1.47 YPRR was a career low and his target share dropped nearly four percentage points from 2024. 

Worthy Turning Heads in Practice

New Chiefs WRs coach Chad O’Shea was highly complimentary of Worthy in spring practices. 

“He’s very coachable. He’s not an error-repeater. So we correct mistakes, and he moves on very quickly,” O’Shea said. “So that’s something I don’t think you see, when somebody’s watching the film or watching from the stands, is how good he is in his preparation.”

Worthy reportedly starred at OTAs, which offers some hope for his development.

Year 3 Has to Look Different

Worthy's ceiling is a WR3 season in a revived Chiefs offense. He could develop heading into his third season. Rice is volatile with his injury and off-field history while Kelce could fall off heading into his age-37 season. That could open the door for Worthy to hit the highest finish of his career. 

There's No Breakout Signal Yet

The two main risk factors for Worthy look like this:

1. A limited Mahomes cuts into overall offensive output
2. Worthy fails to gain a larger share of the passing game while continuing the lackluster efficiency of 2025

Those aspects could keep the young wideout mere bench fodder for lineup-setting leagues.

TRAVIS KELCE

2025 Role & Results

The Volume Kept Him in TE1 Range

Kelce caught 76 of 108 targets for 851 yards and 5 TDs in 2025.

Kelce finished TE3 in total PPR points, but his 11.4 points per game ranked just ninth and displayed a continued decline.

Although Kelce has yet to fall out of the position’s top 9, three straight years of shedding points per game can’t be ignored.

Kelce Had Some Career Lows

The drop-off began with his target share:

His 1.47 yards per route run marked a career low, ranking 22nd among 49 tight ends with 30+ targets:

Rice Brought Out the Best in Kelce and the Offense

The one encouraging piece of his 2025 profile is what happened when WR Rashee Rice was in the lineup. With Rice healthy over eight games, Kelce averaged 13.1 PPR points on 7.0 targets per game. Over nine games without Rice, those numbers dropped to 9.6 PPR points and 5.9 targets. 

Kelce becomes easier for the defense to stifle when he’s the only regular short-range receiving option. And the Chiefs passed a bit more in Mahomes’ eight games after Rice returned from suspension (36.1 attempts per game vs. 35.5 in the six games Rice missed).

That might not have been intentional, however. Kansas City actually led the league at 66.3% in neutral pass rate through Week 6 last season. That declined to 57.5% (fourth) from Rice’s Week 7 return through the Week 15 contest in which Mahomes went down.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Target Competition Remains Similar

The receiving competition around Kelce in 2026 looks similar to 2025. 

Rice returns as the clear No. 1 coming off a 26.5% target share in eight full games last season. Worthy managed just a 16.1% target share. If he repeats the 12.8-yard aDOT of last year, then Worthy will present even less direct competition to Kelce than he did as a 2024 rookie (9.4-yard aDOT).

Kansas City's Scoring Dip Is the Backdrop

The Chiefs as a team have shown a sharp decline in scoring since 2022, with three seasons rankings near the middle of the league (after sitting near the top for Mahomes first five seasons):

Kelce still delivered TE1 production through the decline, but his TD output followed the team’s scoring closely. He never topped five receiving TDs in either of the last three seasons, while he had 9+ in all but one season from 2018-2022. 

Kelce’s end zone targets dropped as well, following a similar trend to the overall scoring of the offense:

The Aging Curve Points To a Drop

Age is the variable that no stat can fully account for. Kelce turns 37 on Oct. 5. According to our aging curve data, age 37 TEs historically produce 50% of their peak production. That would put him at 10.5 PPR points per game, which would have ranked as TE13 last year. 

Kelce failed to meet the 60% of peak production on the curve in 2025, only hitting 54.5% with his 11.4 PPR points per game. 

Kelce, of course, already showed decline in target share and efficiency, as you’d expect with an aging player.

Kelce’s Ceiling Relies on Continued Volume

The ceiling is returning to his production as a top-five PPR TE. The team targeting Kelce more, improving on his career low in yards per route run, would be the first step. An increase in catches likely won’t hit the ceiling alone. The Chiefs offense having a scoring rebound should target Kelce more in the end zone to help with TD production.  Kelce will need to overcome turning 37 this year, but he still is only two years removed from a TE1 overall season.