Crowded Steelers Depth Chart Could Frustrate Your Lineup Decisions

Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR Michael Pittman Jr.
• RB Rico Dowdle
• WR Germie Bernard

Key Departures

• RB Kenneth Gainwell
• TE Jonnu Smith
• WR Calvin Austin III

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Mike McCarthy replaces Mike Tomlin
• OC Brian Angelichio replaces Arthur Smith

Aaron Rodgers

Unexciting Situation Produced Unexciting Results

Rodgers Failed to Stand Out with Steelers

Rodgers finished his first Pittsburgh season 18th in total fantasy points (depending on your format), though just 26th in points per game.

He tallied the fewest points per game of his career, dropping more than a point from his lone healthy season with the Jets in 2024.

Rodgers also presented little weekly upside, cracking the top 12 only four times in 16 games -- with one of those in Week 18, after most fantasy leagues had wrapped for the season. He produced just one other fantasy finish higher than QB18.

Is That Right Arm Getting Weaker?

Rodgers’ 2025 completion rate lined up with the rest of his career, but his yards per pass attempt fell below 7.0 for the third straight (healthy) year. Compare that 6.7 rate of the past three seasons (the last of which came in Green Bay) to 7.7 yards per attempt across his 18 seasons with the Packers, and you get aging signals.

Rodgers’ TD rate has also settled in at 4.8% each of the past three seasons vs. a 6.0% career mark.

His 6.4-yard average depth of target was the shortest of his career, down 0.6 vs. his Jets campaign and 1.9 from his final Packers season. That number also ranked just 37th among 38 QBs who dropped back 200+ times in 2025, beating only Browns rookie Dillon Gabriel.

The System Shrunk the Passing Game

Rodgers’ age likely factored in, but Arthur Smith didn’t help. Here’s where Smith’s seven offenses as an OC or HC have ranked in net yards per pass attempt, which also accounts for sacks:

• 2019 Titans (OC): seventh
• 2020 Titans (OC): seventh
• 2021 Falcons (HC): 18th
• 2022 Falcons (HC): 18th
• 2023 Falcons (HC): 17th
• 2024 Steelers (OC): 19th
• 2025 Steelers (OC): 21st

Rodgers still avoided sacks well, posting a 5.5% sack rate vs. his 6.4% career mark.

Pittsburgh’s WR corps also provided little assistance, with DK Metcalf the only non-RB to exceed 41 catches. He and Kenneth Gainwell combined for:

• 33.5% of the team’s total targets
• 36.2% of receptions
• 38.8% of receiving yards
• 34.6% of TD catches

Impressive Resilience for an Old Guy, Though

Rodgers fractured a bone in his left wrist last season but missed just one game before returning.

He has otherwise stayed remarkably healthy, playing 16+ games in 10 of the past 12 seasons. A left Achilles’ tear in Week 1 of 2023 cost him the rest of that season, but Rodgers has played 33 of a possible 34 regular-season games since.

His last time-consuming injury before that was a fractured collarbone in 2017 that cost him nine games.

2026 Presents Some Key Changes

New (Old) Coach Helps Bring Rodgers Back

Rodgers returns on a new one-year contract, but a lot has changed around him.

The biggest difference is the coaching staff. HC Mike Tomlin’s gone after 19 years at the helm, giving way to Mike McCarthy. The new leader took over Green Bay’s HC post in Rodgers’ second pro season and worked with him through 2018. McCarthy then served as Dallas head man from 2020 through 2024.

Fifteen of McCarthy’s 18 offenses across those two stops ranked among the league’s top half in total yards, including 11 top-10 seasons. He also piloted 14 top-half scoring finishes, including 12 years among the top 10.

McCarthy’s offenses have leaned pass, with a median rank of 9.5 in pass attempts across 18 years, compared with 15.5 for rushing attempts.

This Cast Is Better Than 2025

The personnel has also changed considerably.

Pittsburgh acquired WR Michael Pittman Jr. and then gave him a two-year extension with $24 million in guarantees. That marks a big upgrade to a WR corps that counted Calvin Austin III as its No. 2 last year on just a 31-372-3 receiving line.

Pittman joins Metcalf and Round 2 rookie Germie Bernard, a reliable receiver across three college stops who’s likely headed for a limited role as the No. 3 for at least his rookie season.

Bernard’s time could be limited further by a strong pair of TEs. Pittsburgh returns Pat Freiermuth as its receiving leader at the position after his opportunity volume suffered under Arthur Smith. The Steelers also extended Darnell Washington this offseason at $10.5 million per year on a four-year deal. That likely signals more receiving usage for a guy who has worked primarily as a blocker but increased his receptions each season.

The backfield shed Gainwell after he caught 14 more passes than any other Steeler last season. Rico Dowdle replaces him to pair with Jaylen Warren. Dowdle played for McCarthy in Dallas, including a 39-catch campaign before player and coach both left town.

The Ceiling Stops in Mid-QB2

Rodgers should get a system and receivers more conducive to passing success in 2026. But his 2024 Jets finale found Rodgers ranking just 21st in fantasy points per game, despite having a full season of Garrett Wilson and 11 games with Davante Adams.

Rodgers’ past three healthy seasons have produced his three lowest fantasy-scoring averages, with three different teams.

It’s tough to envision a ceiling beyond the middle of QB2 range, which doesn’t present much value for most formats.

Still, QB18 production from a QB28 best-ball ADP would matter in superflex, and that range looks reachable if Rodgers and his pass catchers stay healthy.

The Age Cliff Is the Risk

There’s obvious decline risk for a 42-year-old who takes hits for a living. But Rodgers is clearly in excellent physical condition and knows how to prepare for and survive an NFL season.

Barring injury, he’s not likely to crash -- especially relative to his low ADP.

Jaylen Warren

2025 Offered More Work … and a New Challenge

Production Climbed But Volatility Remained

Warren posted career highs in total fantasy points and points per game in his first season without Najee Harris (who left for the Chargers). Warren checked in:

• 19th in PPR points per game
• 19th in half-PPR
• 18th in non-PPR

Warren finished 11 of his 16 games inside the position’s top 24 in PPR scoring but had trouble climbing beyond RB2 territory. He cracked the top 12 three times, two of those coming thanks to 2-TD rushing efforts.

Two of those games included 125-plus yards, but Warren topped 70 only once otherwise. For the season, he ranked 21st in rushing yards per game (59.9), 21st in yards per carry (4.5), and 23rd in carries per game (13.2).

Rushing Up, Receiving Down

Warren’s rushing usage spiked with Harris’ departure. Check out his carry shares by season:

• 2022 -- 16.6%
• 2023 -- 30.6%
• 2024 -- 25.2%
• 2025 -- 55.8%

That last mark ranked a solid 17th in the league and nearly doubled Kenneth Gainwell’s 28.0%.

Warren’s receiving suffered for Gainwell’s arrival, though. He drew the second-smallest target share of his career:

• 2022 -- 5.9%
• 2023 -- 14.0%
• 2024 -- 10.1%
• 2025 -- 8.3%

That slotted Warren just 28th at the position, while Gainwell’s 14.9% share ranked fifth.

Gainwell’s departure in free agency should mean some rebound in 2026, though we have new competitors to factor in that we’ll hit in the look-ahead section.

Warren Makes Case for Getting Touches

Warren remained effective when he did get the ball. His 88.9% catch rate marked a career high but also continued a four-year streak of catch rates above 80%. His 8.3 yards per catch edged the career high of 2024 (8.2). And that came despite the shortest average target depth of his career to date (minus-2.5 yards).

Warren countered that average starting point by going for 10.7 yards after catch per reception, 2.3 ahead of his previous best and tied for sixth among 52 RBs who drew at least 20 targets.

Warren also stayed efficient on the ground, ranking eighth among 51 qualifiers (90+ carries) in rush yards over expected per attempt. His 0.86 beat Gainwell’s 0.58 and gave him a top-8 finish in that stat for the second time in three seasons.

Among the same qualifying group, Warren ranked:

• 22nd in yards after contact per attempt
• Eighth in missed tackles forced
• T-20th in yards per rush
• Third in Pro Football Focus elusive rating

That last stat measures a runner’s performance independent of his blocking. Warren trailed only Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane in 2025. He also ranked 11th in 2024 and second in 2023. (Warren carried just 77 times in 2022 but ranked ninth among 59 qualifiers in elusive rating that season if we lower the threshold to 70 carries.)

Bottom line: Warren has proved to be good with the ball in his hands across his four seasons.

Injury Risk Here Might be Subtle

Last year marked the first time that Warren averaged more than 8.8 carries per game, so we’re still gauging his durability. But injuries haven’t been a significant problem to date.

He lost one contest to a knee injury early in 2025 but also returned the game after a Week 11 hamstring tweak. Warren missed two games with a knee issue in 2024 and dealt with a preseason hamstring injury that might have impacted his early-season role and performance.

There was another hamstring injury in 2022 that cost him one game. That will be an aspect to watch heading into the season, as recurrent hamstring issues can signal injury risk going forward.

2026 Presents a Different Challenge

Does This New Guy Signal Trouble for Warren?

Warren watched Gainwell leave for Tampa Bay in free agency, but then Pittsburgh imported Rico Dowdle on a two-year, $12.25 million contract.

When you factor in the slow start to Dowdle’s career -- just 96 total carries and 22 targets through his first four pro seasons -- and Warren’s impressive efficiency, he looks like the superior player.

But Dowdle has seen spikes in usage and production the past two years, and he brings history with Mike McCarthy, the Steelers’ new HC. McCarthy helmed the Cowboys for the entirety of Dowdle’s run there, starting with his 2020 entry as an undrafted free agent.

Dowdle barely saw the field before 2023, but then logged 89 carries and 17 catches that year, followed by his 2024 breakthrough: 235 carries and 39 catches.

Dallas elected not to re-sign Dowdle after that season, but the team also parted ways with McCarthy. It’s certainly worth noting that his return to coaching this offseason has coincided with Dowdle’s largest pro contract to date.

Split Could Be Trouble for Fantasy Managers

Losing Gainwell should help Warren’s receiving outlook, but Dowdle is a more similar back. That could be bad news for fantasy.

Let’s start with their usage over the past two years (obviously in different situations):

Dowdle took over the 2024 Cowboys backfield from a 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. But then he found an uninterested market and opened 2025 behind Chuba Hubbard before exploding while Hubbard was out with injury. And yet the Panthers also let him walk after the season.

(To be fair, they still had Hubbard under contract and are getting former second-round RB Jonathon Brooks back healthy.)

Warren, meanwhile, went from sharing with Harris to sharing with Gainwell. He’s heading into Year 1 of a two-year extension (worth $11.9 million) signed under the Mike Tomlin regime last September.

Dowdle and Warren look like similar players. They’ve both proved effective as runners and receivers with increased workloads in recent seasons. And neither has proved to be a true backfield leader.

Expect an annoying work split here for fantasy purposes rather than either guy emerging as the top back. Of course, an injury to either player would likely spike the other’s workload.

The RB Targets Are Coming Down

The Steelers will probably throw fewer passes to their RBs this season than last. Their 25.4% RB target share ranked second in the league, behind only San Francisco.

Pittsburgh also ranked second in that category in 2024, but even that 23.7% checked in lower than last season’s share. Warren’s first two seasons in the league found Pittsburgh 24th in RB target share (17.3%) and then sixth (23.6%).

Warren, and later Gainwell, probably helped drive that rise, but so did Pittsburgh’s deteriorating WR depth chart.

They acquired DK Metcalf last offseason to start the rebuild and then nabbed Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round rookie Germie Bernard this offseason.

Pittsburgh also sports a pair of TEs on starter-level contracts:

• Pat Freiermuth -- $12 million per year
• Darnell Washington -- $10.5 million

Washington got that extension this offseason, after McCarthy’s arrival. He has worked primarily as a blocker through three seasons but also increased his reception count each year.

All told, Pittsburgh RBs face more target competition in 2026 than they have in a while. 

Warren Has the Receiving Edge

McCarthy has leaned pass across 18 years as a head coach, so overall target volume should be decent. But no McCarthy offense since 2013 has reached a 20% RB target share.

Add in the WR upgrades and last year’s unusually high RB target share, and Pittsburgh’s backfield probably sees a notable target decline.

Warren has seen target shares similar to Dowdle’s over the past two years, but he has proved to be the more efficient receiver:

(Success rate is a Pro Football Reference stat that measures how often a player gains the “needed” yardage in a given situation.)

Warren’s also coming off the best PFF pass-blocking grade that either guy has posted in the pros, though he trailed Dowdle in that category in 2024.

We still need to see how the split develops in their first season together, but Warren appears to hold the receiving edge.

The pair looks more closely matched across rushing categories:

Low-RB2 Is the Honest Upside

The obvious best case for Warren would find Dowdle getting hurt. Unless 2025 third-round pick Kaleb Johnson dramatically improves vs. last year, that scenario would vault Warren’s workload and give him upside into the position’s top 12.

Short of that, we should probably expect something similar to what Warren has given us the past two years.

Expect the rushing share to settle somewhere between the 25.2% of 2024 and last year’s 55.8%. The past two seasons have found 24 RBs reaching 47% carry shares. That’s likely close to the ceiling for whomever leads this backfield, as long as both stay healthy and neither falters.

Factor all that in, and Warren’s best hope looks like low-RB2 territory across formats as long as Dowdle’s around.

Rico Dowdle

Carolina Got Big Return on Small Investment

Dowdle Repeated Success from Dallas

Dowdle followed his Dallas breakthrough with an arguably better Carolina season, but the workload and production arrived unevenly.

Dowdle ranked top-2 among RBs across fantasy formats in weeks 5, 6, and 9. He finished higher than 21st in PPR just two other times (weeks 10 and 11) and outside the top 30 seven times.

The midseason catalyst was Chuba Hubbard’s calf injury. He left Week 4 early, missed weeks 5 and 6, and then played smaller snap shares the rest of the way vs. the beginning of the season:

• First three weeks: 68.6%
• Week 7 on: 39.4%

Hubbard also averaged 13.2 carries across his six early-season starts, but then just 6.1 per contest the rest of the way.

Dowdle, meanwhile … 

• logged 10 carries or fewer each of the first four weeks,
• racked up huge workloads in weeks 5 and 6 (with no Hubbard),
• and then averaged 14.1 carries and 3.2 targets from 7 on.

The rushing workload wavered some after Hubbard’s return from injury, but Dowdle maintained the backfield receiving lead.

Some Stats Point to Questionable Efficiency

His 4.6 yards per carry with the Panthers matched the 4.6 Dowdle put up in his final Dallas season. His rushing and receiving success rates each dipped in Carolina, however, even though both offenses ranked 25th in DVOA for their respective seasons. (The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott for nine games in 2024.)

The dips were notable:

• 53.6% to 47.9% rushing
• 53.1% to 46.0% receiving

Dowdle also declined from 2024 to 2025 in:

• Pro Football Focus elusive rating: 63.5 to 47.0
• Yards after contact per attempt: 3.28 to 3.15
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.19 to 0.14

That came despite a slight climb in yards before contact per attempt, from 2.4 in Dallas to 2.5 with the Panthers. That indicates the blocking wasn’t a problem in Carolina.

Dowdle did improve in yards per route, yards per target, and yards per reception, even as the passer rating on throws his way fell from 108.2 to 91.8. (So even without Prescott for half the season, Dowdle got worse QB play in Carolina than he had in Dallas.)

2026 Presents New Opportunity Under Familiar Coach

Boost in Payment Might Tell the Story

Dowdle got a two-year, $12.25 million deal to join the Steelers early in free agency. That’s significant for two reasons.

1. Dowdle got just $2.75 million on a one-year deal in Carolina last offseason. That means the whole league just kinda shrugged when he hit the market after the 2024 breakthrough in Dallas.
2. The Pittsburgh move reunites him with Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys head coach throughout Dowdle’s tenure there.

Pittsburgh signed Dowdle as Kenneth Gainwell left for Tampa Bay on a two-year, $14 million deal. Gainwell’s contract included nearly twice as much guaranteed money, $9.83 million vs. Dowdle’s $5 million, so the difference may have been financial. 

Or maybe the new coaching staff just prefers Dowdle. Either way, these Steelers certainly appear to value him more than his previous two employers, each of whom let him walk after productive seasons.

Jaylen Warren Is the Obstacle

Dowdle joins a backfield that shed Gainwell but retained Jaylen Warren. The incumbent signed his own two-year extension (through 2027) last September at slightly less than Dowdle in annual average value but with more guaranteed money ($7.05 million).

More importantly, Warren has been effective through his first four seasons. The best measure of that might be his performance in elusive rating, a PFF stat that measures a runner’s performance independent of his blocking by relying on yards after contact and missed tackles forced.

Here’s how Warren has ranked:

• 2022 -- ninth
• 2023 -- second
• 2024 -- 11th
• 2025 -- third

Warren has also posted better receiving efficiency numbers than Dowdle over the past two years, when each player saw elevated usage:

Even so, McCarthy clearly likes Dowdle. Here’s what he said during a voluntary minicamp in April:

Volume Could Rise; Ceiling Still Doesn't

McCarthy’s offense has proved fantasy-friendly through the years, with a passing lean but volume and scoring opportunities available across positions.

His more recent turn as Cowboys head man found four of the five Dallas offenses ranking among the league’s top 4 in offensive pace.

That level of play volume would obviously help everyone in the Pittsburgh offense if it carries over. But working with the end-of-career version of Aaron Rodgers necessarily lowers the ceiling compared with younger Rodgers and prime-aged Dak Prescott (ages 27-31).

Upside Case Needs Help from a Teammate

The obvious best case for Dowdle would include Warren getting hurt. Barring a huge step forward from 2025 third-rounder Kaleb Johnson -- who managed just 29 touches as a rookie -- that scenario would present huge play volume and give the veteran upside into the position’s top 15.

Short of that, Dowdle and Warren look poised for an even, likely unpredictable touch split.

Both players can still help fantasy teams from that setup, but they’re likely to settle into RB3 range and be tough to trust week to week.

DK Metcalf

Pittsburgh Committed to Metcalf but Didn’t Boost Him

WR1 Contract Meets with WR3 Results

The Steelers sent a second-round pick to Seattle and then signed Metcalf to a four-year, $132 million deal. The wideout finished his first Pittsburgh season ranked:

• 26th among WRs in total PPR and half-PPR points
• 24th in PPR points per game
• 25th in half-PPR points per game
• 20th in total non-PPR points
• 21st in non-PPR points per game

The PPR and half-PPR points per game marked Metcalf’s lowest output since his 2019 rookie season, despite getting a slight boost from the first rushing TD of his career (among just five career carries).

He set career lows in receiving yards and total targets, beating only that rookie campaign in targets per game. Metcalf also posted the second-fewest receptions per game of his career.

He finished six of 15 weeks among the top 24 PPR receivers, with four of those landing him inside the top 12.

Metcalf completed eight other weeks outside the position’s top 30 and managed just 2 catches for 42 yards in the team’s lopsided playoff loss to the Texans.

Metcalf exceeded 4 receptions in a game just five times all year and topped 5 catches once -- the only time he reached double-digit targets.

Metcalf Didn't Command Enough

Despite Pittsburgh’s shallow pass-catching depth chart, Metcalf ranked just 26th among WRs in target share. That actually marked improvement vs. his final two Seattle seasons, but the past three years appear to have reversed Metcalf’s status as a target earner.

Check out the progression, starting with his second pro season:

Last year’s improvement was cool, but a highly paid, productive, veteran wideout probably should have grabbed a larger chunk. Here were Pittsburgh’s top 5 in targets for 2025:

• Metcalf 99
• Kenneth Gainwell 85
• Calvin Austin III 55
• Pat Freiermuth 54
• Jonnu Smith 54

Blame ex-OC Arthur Smith if you want, but just one other No. 1 WR among his previous six NFL offenses garnered a smaller target share -- and that was rookie-year A.J. Brown arriving to a team with third-year WR Corey Davis (the fifth overall pick in 2017) already in place.

(*Ridley played just five games in 2021.)

We’ll dig further into why this matters in Metcalf’s look-ahead section.

Be careful about blaming team pass volume as well. Although Smith has leaned heavily toward the run through his seven years as an OC or head coach, last year’s Steelers ranked higher than any previous Smith offense in total pass attempts (17th). Just one other Smith offense ranked higher than 25th in that category.

Metcalf Doesn’t Reveal Much Durability Concern

Injuries haven’t proved to be a big issue for Metcalf, who has sat out just five regular-season contests across his seven-year career. But all five came over the past three years.

Last year’s two absences to close the season came via suspension, after Metcalf made contact with a trolling fan in Detroit. The previous two seasons included a 2024 MCL sprain and a 2023 rib bruise.

Overall, this isn’t an area that should impact your expectations for the receiver.

2026 Changes Could Impact Metcalf Most

First Challenge: New Competitor for Target Lead

Here’s where we need to revisit those target shares. The Steelers acquired WR Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason -- after swapping out Mike Tomlin’s staff for Mike McCarthy’s crew -- and extended the former Colts WR for another two years.

Here’s how Pittman and Metcalf compare in target shares since Pittman’s rookie year (Metcalf’s second season):

That doesn’t work as a direct comparison, of course, because they played in different situations every year. But check the similarities.

Each player -- after arriving as a second-round pick -- settled into a lead-target role over his next three seasons. In Metcalf’s case, that included staying ahead of Seattle teammate Tyler Lockett.

But then each guy watched new teammates affect the more recent seasons. Metcalf lost target share to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, including the young guy passing him in 2024. Pittman watched WR Josh Downs beat him in 2024 target share (adjusted for games played) and then barely held off rookie TE Tyler Warren (19.4%) last year.

The takeaway: Metcalf and Pittman have fared well at commanding targets so far, but neither presents as a true alpha in that area. Expect them to grapple for this year’s target lead in Pittsburgh.

Depth Chart Still Looks Friendly

Although they’ll challenge each other, no other Steelers looks ready to challenge for a top-2 target spot.

Round 2 rookie Germie Bernard should reach the season as Pittsburgh’s No. 3 wideout. He similarly fared well in commanding college targets -- across multiple stops -- but didn’t dominate in that area. And Bernard’s early role could be challenged by two-TE sets.

The Steelers return Pat Freiermuth, who has reached 60 catches in three of his five seasons but is coming off a down year statistically (career lows in targets and receptions per game). We probably can blame Arthur Smith for that, but Pittsburgh also retains stud blocking TE Darnell Washington.

The latter got a big four-year extension this spring ($10.5 million per year) and has increased his receiving role each of the past two years: from 7 catches as a rookie, to 19, and then 31.

The backfield shed 2025 team reception leader Kenneth Gainwell and replaced him with Rico Dowdle.

Metcalf Is the Deep Guy. Rodgers Isn't.

McCarthy’s arrival should help team pass volume. His Dallas offenses ranked among the league’s top 4 in offensive pace in four of his five seasons there. And McCarthy’s 18 years as a head coach in Green Bay (13) and then Dallas have produced a median rank of 9.5 in pass attempts vs. 15.5 in rushes.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see these Steelers improve on last year’s No. 17 ranking in pass attempts, especially because last year’s team ranked just 28th in total plays.

Rodgers might not be a great fit for Metcalf’s skill set at this point, though. The QB set a career low last year with his 6.4-yard average depth of target. That checked in nearly a full yard below his previous low, which Rodgers matched the year before with the Jets.

Metcalf’s career 13.2-yard aDOT vs. Pittman’s 8.9 clearly makes him the unit’s deep guy. He posted a career-low aDOT in 2025 (11.3 yards) but a career-best receiving success rate (52.5%).

(That’s a Pro Football Reference stat measuring how often a player gains the needed yardage for distinct situations.)

He Needs TD Luck and a Target Lead

Metcalf almost certainly doesn’t present the top-15 fantasy ceiling of his best Seattle seasons, because he’s working with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers rather than a prime-aged Russell Wilson.

Positive TD luck could land the wideout in low-WR2 territory, but he’d need to hold off Pittman for the target lead and get more efficient with his yardage to maximize his usage.

Considering the aforementioned limitations of his situation, plus a mere 33.7% contested-catch rate over the past three years, it’s tough to envision a difference-making fantasy season from Metcalf in 2026.

Floor Falls Fast in Full PPR

Barring injury, the worst outcome for Metcalf would include Pittman emerging as the clear target leader.

Even though you wouldn’t know it from his modest TD total (6), Metcalf fared well in TD rate. His 10.2% aligned closely with his pre-2025 rate of 11%, which got boosts from 10+ TD campaigns back in 2020 and 2021.

If Metcalf misses the target lead, isn’t getting enough deep-ball help from his QB, and doesn’t stand out vs. his teammates as a contested catcher in the red zone, he could settle in as more of a WR4 -- especially in full PPR.

Michael Pittman Jr.

2025 Didn’t Offer Best Colts Send-Off

Fantasy Total Hid Underlying Vulnerability

Pittman finished a nice WR22 in PPR points last season, boosted by playing all 17 games and notching the best receiving-TD rate of his career. He ranked:

• WR32 in PPR points per game
• WR36 in half-PPR points per game
• WR37 in non-PPR points per game

The 8.75% TD rate wasn’t a standout number for the position in general but easily beat Pittman’s 4.44% career rate leading up to last season.

A good Daniel Jones season certainly helped, considering the QBs Pittman had previously dealt with:

• Anthony Richardson
• Joe Flacco
• Gardner Minshew
• Matt Ryan
• Sam Ehlinger
• Nick Foles
• Carson Wentz
• Philip Rivers (the 2020 and 2025 versions)

His PPR scoring average still ranked just fourth-best of his career, though, mostly because his target volume fell.

Where Did the Targets Go?

Here’s Pittman’s targets per game by season:

• 2020: 4.7
• 2021: 7.6
• 2022: 8.8
• 2023: 9.75
• 2024: 6.9
• 2025: 6.5

Last year’s Colts ranked just 18th in pass attempts -- vs. 21st in rushes -- but they’ve actually only ranked higher than that in one of Pittman’s six seasons (2022: ninth).

The veteran wideout trended down in target share the past two years.

Josh Downs beat him in that category in 2024 (adjusted for games missed), and rookie TE Tyler Warren came close last year (19.4%).

Pittman also didn’t help himself. Despite a career-best catch rate (72.1%) and his second-best receiving-success rate (57.7%, measuring how often Pittman gained the “needed” yardage in a given situation), the 28-year-old saw his yards per route fall off vs. the previous two seasons.

The primary issue there was a career-low 3.4 yards after catch per reception, despite a mere 8.4-yard average depth of target.

2026 Sends Him to a New Place

Steelers Like Pittman More Than Trade Price Indicated

Pittman’s meh efficiency and falling target shares probably helped push the Colts to move the final year of his contract for a mere pick swap, a sixth-rounder for a seventh-rounder.

The Steelers showed they were doing more than just shopping some other team’s yard sale, though, by also giving Pittman a two-year extension that should lock him in at least through 2027. And Mike McCarthy likes him.

“He’s perfect, can play all three spots … the X, Z, and the F, you know, move him around,” McCarthy told the Pat McAfee Show at the end of March. “And that’s just the way we like to play football. We like to play concept football, keep moving our guys around, and try to create matchups.”

Pittman did move around the formation with the Colts but has spent just 25.1% of his career pass snaps in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. Last year marked his high point at 28.9% slot.

How Will He Fit with Metcalf?

Exactly where he aligns in the formation will matter less, however, than how Pittman fares in target share. And his primary competition will be DK Metcalf.

Let’s pull Pittman’s target shares from earlier and look at them next to Metcalf’s since 2020 (Pittman’s first year and Metcalf’s second):

If we throw out Pittman’s rookie year, we get Metcalf leading two of the past five years and Pittman leading the other three -- with only 2023 presenting a big edge.

Of course, that year found Metcalf competing with Tyler Lockett and rookie-year Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while Pittman had rookie Downs and second-year Alec PIerce.

The most important takeaway here, though, is that neither Pittman nor Metcalf heads into 2026 with a streak of proven leadership in earning targets.

Where Pittman might lead Metcalf is the location of his targets. His 8.9-yard career average depth of target sits well short of Metcalf’s 13.2. And that’s including the career-low 11.3-yard aDOT Metcalf saw in his first season with Aaron Rodgers.

The QB’s career-low 6.4-yard aDOT in 2025 -- especially with Metcalf as his most frequent target -- likely points to Rodgers’ late-career limitations more than ex-OC Arthur Smith’s game planning.

Check out the annual intended air yards per target for the seven offenses Smith has piloted to date as OC or HC (per Pro Football Reference):

• 2019: 8.6
• 2020: 8.4
• 2021: 7.2
• 2022: 9.7
• 2023: 8.2
• 2024: 7.8
• 2025: 5.9

The change becomes even more noteworthy when you factor in that Rodgers -- even at age 41 (last year) -- was probably the best QB Smith has worked with.

(Sorry, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and late-career Russell Wilson.)

A Pass-Leaning Coach Helps

The swap from Smith and the rest of Mike Tomlin’s staff should be at least neutral for the Pittsburgh offense, and potentially good for its production.

McCarthy has loads of history with Rodgers, having coached him for 13 years in Green Bay. The new HC also brings a pass-favoring history, with a median rank of 9.5 in total pass attempts across his 18 head-coaching seasons (13 for the Packers, five for the Cowboys). Those offenses featured a median rank of 15.5 in rushing attempts.

McCarthy’s offenses have also run at a good pace. Four of his five Dallas units ranked among the league’s top 4 in offensive pace.

He might have trouble matching that with a 42-year-old Rodgers as opposed to prime-aged Dak Prescott, but the swap should at least improve offensive pace after the Steelers ranked just 28th in total plays last year.

The likely increase in play volume for a historically pass-leaning coach should help the target volume for both of Pittsburgh’s top 2 WRs.

Even the Ceiling Looks Like Low-WR2

The best case for Pittman -- short of a Metcalf injury, of course -- would find the import running well ahead of his new corps mate in target share.

Even then it would be difficult to envision Pittman climbing beyond 24%, which would have ranked 14th among WRs last year. His two seasons to date of 24% target share or higher found him ranking 22nd and 18th in PPR points per game in 2022 and 2023, with just 4 TD catches each year.

That looks like the high end for Pittman in 2026.

Pittman Sports Multiple Paths to Meh

If his target share falls short of that range, then Pittman could easily settle into another season of low-WR3 weekly output in PPR -- or lower if Metcalf out-targets him.

Rodgers remains serviceable but isn’t dramatically elevating pass catchers at this point. And Pittman brings his own downside risk via last year’s limited numbers in both aDOT and run after catch. He’ll turn 29 on Oct. 5 and doesn’t profile as the type of high-end WR talent who posts big late-career numbers.

There’s also a chance these Steelers lean a little more toward the run than previous McCarthy teams. The whole league has trended that way in recent years, Pittsburgh sports a solid backfield duo in Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, and the team extended blocking TE Darnell Washington for $10.5 million a year this spring -- after McCarthy arrived.

Germie Bernard

Solid -- Not Special -- Prospect Profile

Bernard increased his college production across three stops.

After a quiet debut at Michigan State, he ranked fifth in receptions and receiving yards for a loaded Washington team: ahead of Denzel Boston but behind Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and senior TE Jack Westover.

Bernard then led Alabama in receptions the past two years, though he trailed WR Ryan Williams in 2024 receiving yardage and likely benefited in 2025 from Williams suffering a significant concussion in the season opener.

At his best, Bernard didn’t dominate market shares. His senior campaign included the following portions:

• 23.0% of receptions
• 26.3% of receiving yards
• 23.3% of receiving TDs

Bernard’s 22.6% dominator rating (share of yards plus TDs) ranked a mere 23rd among the 49 WRs invited to this year’s Scouting Combine. His 1.70 final-year yards per route ranked just 38th among that group.

2026 Lands Him Behind Some Roadblocks

The No. 3 WR Role May Be Small

Bernard’s Round 2 draft capital helps his longer-term outlook in Pittsburgh, but he looks blocked from meaningful target volume right away.

New HC Mike McCarthy has leaned pass across his 18 years as an NFL head man, with a median ranking of 9.5 in pass attempts. But his first Steelers squad boasts a pair of veteran WR starters and two well-paid TEs.

DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. will start on the outside, and McCarthy has touted Pittman’s ability to move around the formation. They’ll likely emerge as the clear 1-2 in targets, in either order.

Pat Freiermuth returns as the team’s lead receiving TE, on a contract that pays about $12 million a year through 2028. Darnell Washington has been more blocker than receiver through three seasons. But his receptions increased each of the past two years, and Washington got an extension this spring that will pay him $10.5 million per year.

We don’t know if Washington will earn more receiving work, but the sizable salaries for him and Freiermuth point to plenty of two-TE sets. That would make it difficult for Bernard to find extensive playing time as the No. 3 wideout.

File Bernard as a Waiver Watch

Bernard’s best hope for 2026 fantasy relevance would be an injury to either Metcalf or Pittman. The Steelers sport little else at the position, so the rookie should step up to a top-2 spot in such a case.

If he does, Bernard’s shorter-range game, crisp route running, and reliable hands could quickly make him an Aaron Rodgers favorite.

Keep an eye on Bernard as a potential waiver claim if Pittsburgh loses a WR starter.

Pat Freiermuth

2025: Arthur Smith, TE Crowd Conspired Against Production

We don’t know how Freiermuth feels about Arthur Smith on a personal level, but his professional outlook should benefit from the former OC getting booted.

Freiermuth caught a career-low 2.4 passes per game last season, despite a QB upgrade from Justin Fields-Russell Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. The main problem: Those Steelers crowded their TE depth chart and played three of them a lot.

Darnell Washington, Jonnu Smith, and Freiermuth all played more offensive snaps than No. 2 WR Calvin Austin III, with Freiermuth third among that group. He led the trio in pass routes but played a career-low 50.6% of the snaps, well down from four straight years at 62.0% or higher to open his career.

Even Freiermuth’s 353 regular-season pass routes were the second-lowest tally of his career, ahead of only his 12-game 2023.

He exceeded 3 catches in a game just twice all season and cracked the top-12 PPR tight ends three times. Freiermuth finished 20th or lower 12 times before posting TE16 and TE17 finishes in the final two regular-season weeks.

His TE31 finish in PPR points per game followed these rankings from previous seasons:

• 2021: TE17
• 2022: TE10
• 2023: TE32
• 2024: TE13

That TE32 ranking predated Arthur Smith’s arrival but came with a mid-season IR stint for a hamstring injury and doomed OC Matt Canada (fired mid-season).

2026: How Much Better Can Things Get?

Pittsburgh appears ready to let Jonnu Smith walk after he matched Freiermuth’s 54 targets last year, tying for fourth on the team. Two of the three players ahead of them in targets also left town: Kenneth Gainwell to the Bucs and Calvin Austin III to the Giants.

The Steelers, of course, also acquired WR Michael Pittman Jr., filled Gainwell’s vacancy with Rico Dowdle, and drafted WR Germie Bernard in Round 2.

Pittsburgh also extended TE Darnell Washington for four years at $10.5 million per season, ahead of the final year on his rookie deal. Washington has been more blocker than receiver through his first three campaigns but has also increased his receptions each year.

Dallas Fed Tight Ends. Will Pittsburgh?

Washington’s extension came after Pittsburgh replaced Mike Tomlin’s staff with Mike McCarthy’s. McCarthy said the first year with a new team is about learning his players, but Washington’s contract hardly suggests a smaller Year 4 role.

That doesn’t necessarily hurt Freiermuth, who has never played more than 68.7% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps since he arrived. But we’ll have to see exactly how all the pieces fit together.

McCarthy’s offenses have at least leaned pass across his 18 years as a head coach, with a median ranking of 9.5 in pass attempts. His final four seasons in Dallas also all found a TE among the team’s top 3 in targets: Jake Ferguson in 2024 and 2023; Dalton Schultz the two seasons before that.

Expected Points Say Stay Cautious

This year’s Steelers sport upward mobility in both total play volume and passing volume after finishing 17th in attempts last year and 28th in total plays. Four of McCarthy’s five Dallas offenses ranked among the top 4 in offensive pace.

If play volume and passing volume increase, along with Freiermuth's biggest direct challenge for targets being gone, he could climb back toward -- or even into -- the position's top 15 in PPR scoring.

Washington’s role will be worth watching for any potential change. But Freiermuth’s significant edge in salary and experience over Bernard should support a fair amount of two-TE sets (as opposed to three-WR formations).

Freiermuth faced less competition at WR when he finished TE13 in PPR points per game in 2024 -- including George Pickens missing three games -- but that also came in an offense that ranked just 29th in pass attempts.

Start your expectations much lower, though. Freiermuth has ranked higher than TE19 in expected PPR points per game just once through five seasons. Since Washington arrived, he has ranked just 29th, 21st, and tied for 36th (with Jonnu Smith) in that category.

Darnell Washington

2025 Presented Modest Growth

A 31-364-1 receiving line shouldn’t excite anyone, but it marked a second straight year of progress for Washington.

The former third-round pick has climbed from 7 catches as a 2023 rookie to 19 and then 31, while his snap share rose from 47.7% to 51.7% to 57.1%. That led Pittsburgh TEs last year, though he trailed Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith in pass routes.

Washington has also doubled his targets inside the 10-yard line for two straight years, according to Pro Football Reference. That number, though, has gone just from 1 to 2 to 4, and he drew a mere 2 end-zone targets in 2025.

2026 Contract, Coaching Change Add Intrigue

Washington earned a four-year extension ahead of the final year of his rookie contract, and the new pact’s $10.5 million annual average ranks 14th among TEs as of this writing.

That contract doesn’t guarantee Washington more target volume. Evan Engram sits just ahead of him in annual average value after ranking 15th among TEs in targets last year, Cole Kmet sits even higher after tying for 33rd, and Freiermuth ranks 10th at $12.1 million per year (through 2028).

Washington figures to remain well behind Freiermuth in opportunities, but both could play more snaps now that Jonnu Smith’s gone.

Mike McCarthy said around the time of the extension that he’ll be learning his new personnel in Year 1, but the contract clearly shows he wants Washington around. The 24-year-old still brings more value as a blocker than a receiver, though. Even in college he never topped 1.9 catches per game or 2 total TDs in a season.