NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Chargers-Colts

By Matt Schauf 11:40pm EST 12/25/22

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Third time's the charm, right?

Here we go with QB #3 for the Colts this season. Now it's Nick Foles, who started 1 game for last year's Bears and 7 the year before. He steps into an Indy offense that ranks just 29th in scoring and 30th in yards per play.

The Colts have attempted the league's 7th most passes but rank just 19th in passing yards and 22nd in passing TDs.

Matt Ryan hasn't worked ... either time. Sam Ehlinger didn't work. None of it has worked with either HC Frank Reich or interim HC Jeff Saturday.

But are the Chargers working? QB Justin Herbert gets plenty of praise, but the offense ranks just 24th in Football Outsiders' DVOA: 22nd passing, and 28th rushing.

The Colts arrive as the better defense. But even though they rate well as a run defense, they stand 6th most friendly as a RB-scoring matchup.

The Chargers have also been positive for RB scoring. Yet, even though the defense has looked vulnerable overall, it has been a negative matchup for every other position by fantasy scoring.

So who sets up as as the key DFS value plays from the Monday night matchup? Let's check the charts ...

DraftKings

The 1st thing that stands out here is the low-dollar options with actual projections. Donald Parham returned last week and played his largest snap share of the season. He also caught 3 passes for the 2nd straight appearance. Now comes a Colts defense that ranks just 26th in coverage DVOA vs. TEs, according to Football Outsiders. The Chargers have passed at the 4th highest rate over expected for the season -- 2nd highest over the past 4 weeks.

FanDuel

If you want to include Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler here, then you'll have $7000 left per player. That leaves Jelani Woods, Joshua Kelley, Donald Parham, Mo Alie-Cox and Jordan Wilkins as the options -- at least among the players we've projected.

Wilkins is worth noting here. He only got called up from the practice squad this week. He's sure to be stuck behind last week's duo -- Zack Moss and Deon Jackson -- right? We're certainly assuming Wilkins will be the RB3. But he has been with the Colts since 2018 and averaged 4.9 yards per rush across 201 career carries.

It wouldn't be crazy to see Wilkins get significant touches here.