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DFS Showdown Tips: Bear-Packers

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Tue, 23 May 2023 . 1:27 PM EDT

Sunday Night Football brings a rematch of a Week 6 game that was light on offense.

Neither team reached 170 passing yards in that 24-14 Packers victory. Both running games fared pretty well, with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combining for 135 yards on 24 rushes (5.6 per carry) and Khalil Herbert delivering a 19-97-1 rushing line in his 1st start.

This round finds David Montgomery back, despite shoulder, groin and glute issues that slowed his start to the practice week. He finished with a full Friday workout and no game designation. Montgomery is also coming off 2 straight games of 20+ touches, including a season-high 29 (21 rushes, 8 receptions) in last Sunday’s loss to Arizona. He cracked 130 total yards in each of last year’s 2 meetings with Green Bay.

Justin Fields returns after losing the past 2+ games to a rib injury. He threw for 174 yards and a TD (plus a pick) in the 1st meeting, adding 43 rushing yards. The rookie looked better in his last 2 full outings, before going down against Baltimore in Week 11.

Aaron Rodgers continues to play through a broken toe. He didn’t struggle in the 1st meeting. Packers coaches just didn’t ask him to do much. Rodgers completed 17 of 23 attempts for 195 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs. He tossed 4 TDs in each of last year’s 2 clashes.

So what’s in store for tonight?

DraftKings

AJ Dillon makes sense toward the top of the value chart. He’s not likely to rack up 25 touches again like he did last time out in Aaron Jones’ return from a knee sprain. But Dillon has garnered 12+ in 5 consecutive outings. Green Bay arrives as a 12-point favorite, with a QB working through a broken toe and a lead RB still somewhere short of 100%. The upside case for Dillon is easy to build.

On the Chicago side, Cole Kmet finished 3rd in targets (5) in the 1st meeting but tied for 2nd in catches (4) and ranked 2nd alone in receiving yards (49). Green Bay arrives to the rematch ranked just 27th in TE-coverage DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. That’s the defense’s weakest spot by that metric. It’s a slightly positive matchup for Kmet by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

FanDuel

The stars dominate the value chart over here, despite their large salaries. The most attractive cheap guys look like the Green Bay wideouts, for their TD upside. The Packers have been 6th most pass-heavy in neutral situations over the 4 weeks since Rodgers returned from COVID (and with the toe injury), according to RBSDM.com. Randall Cobb’s injury adds upside to Allen Lazard ($7000), while Marquez Valdes-Scantling has tallied 19 targets over the past 2 contests.