DFS Showdown Tips: Bears-Steelers
This Chicago Bears-Pittsburgh Steelers showdown features about as cheap a set of QBs as you’ll find.
Ben Roethlisberger and Justin Fields each check in at lower salaries than both Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson. And each guy sits closer to Chase Claypool in salary than to Harris.
We’re used to seeing the QBs near the top of the value chart on FanDuel, with its unimaginative showdown pricing. But Fields and Roethlisberger also check in higher than usual on the DK chart.
Who should join them in your primary lineups? Well, we also seem to have a more concentrated set of options than usual. Of course, we also have a strikingly low 39-point over/under. So winning lineups might come down to finding the guy who scores the 1 TD.
Let’s check the values …
The Bears defense might be a little overrated on this chart. There’s upside to the matchup with Pittsburgh, but the ceiling doesn’t rise nearly as high for a team defense as it does for offensive players. It’s also worth noting that the Steelers have turned the ball over just twice over the past 3 games.
Justin Fields comes off a performance that could be a breakthrough or an outlier, depending on what comes next. The rookie ran for 103 yards in the Week 8 loss to San Francisco, despite just 2 designed runs among his 10 attempts. That actually continued a trend from the previous 2 weeks. Fields rushed for 43 yards on 6 carries against the Packers in Week 6, and then 38 yards on 8 attempts in the lopsided loss at Tampa Bay. In each of those cases, Fields logged just 1 designed rushing attempt.
So he has been getting his scramble on the past 3 weeks. Fields will likely need to do more of that against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 7th in sack rate. It’s certainly not a great spot for him overall, though. The Steelers hit Week 9 as the 6th-worst scoring matchup for QBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Darnell Mooney heads into Monday night questionable after popping up on Friday’s injury report with a groin issue. We’ll see about his availability. David Montgomery is expected to return from his IR stint for the knee injury. That complicates the backfield outlook in a matchup that has been unfriendly for RB scoring (6th worst there as well). It also figures to drive down the owned rate, though, on Khalil Herbert -- who has dominated touches and played well over the past 3 weeks.
On the other side, Chicago’s defense remains solid but entered the week ranked last in the league in coverage DVOA on #1 WRs, according to Football Outsiders. The Bears also check in just 15th vs. #2 WRs and 16th in RB coverage.
It’s a neutral-to-positive matchup for anyone the Steelers decide to throw the ball to -- except TE Pat Freiermuth. The Bears come in allowing the league’s 2nd-fewest points per game to the position.
Freiermuth’s matchup might not be good, but his FD price looks good for a guy who drew 7 targets each of the past 2 games. Eric Ebron will miss his 2nd straight game, which helped the rookie play a season-high 78% of the snaps last time out -- following a then-high of 60% the previous game. Freiermuth already ranks 3rd among Steelers in red-zone targets -- according to Pro Football Focus -- behind Johnson and Najee Harris. Pro Football Reference has him tied for 2nd among Steelers in targets inside the 10-yard line.