Fantasy Football Redraft

Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 3

By Alex Korff 3:24pm EDT 9/20/23

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Change your league, or change your league. 

“My league doesn’t trade.” 

“My league overvalues their players.”

“Not in my league.”

Excuses. If your league does not want to participate in trades, you need to work to change your league. 

Or, change to a different league next year. 

Trading is Fun

This is a game, and we should all strive to maximize fun. And trading makes fantasy fun.

And what could be more fun than losing all your RBs just two weeks into the season? 

This string of injuries has caused an overall upward shift in RB values and a downward shift in WR values. We are starting to run out of RBs we're excited to start. 

Only 15 weeks to go. 

Let’s take a look at the chart and who we want to target, trade away, and hold. 

Check out all our chart options:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Process

To make the market version of the fantasy football trade value chart, I aggregate expert consensus rankings and use them to feed my model.

The goal is to align players within their positional groups and then look for crossover points across positions. Expert rankings (ECR) feed the market model since most users follow experts (duh). 

I then run the Draft Sharks rankings through the same model and normalize the scale to 100. 

Comparing ECR and Draft Sharks values generates the VS Market field on the chart. The Trend is the Draft Sharks Values vs. the previous week. 

How to Use a Trade Value Chart

Add player values (left column) on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. Add up the values of multiple players on each side, and you can look at larger trades.

That's a basic answer but doesn't do the question justice.

Trade value charts are designed for one-for-one trades and don’t do a great job when looking at larger or lopsided trades.

Two-for-one and three-for-one trades need to account for the benefits a top-tier player adds to a team and for freeing up roster spots. In two-for-one, three-for-one, or three-for-two type trades, the side sending more players needs to overpay for the smaller side.

For example, if you are trading for a player with a value of 75 and want to send two players, they likely need a combined value of 30-50% more than 75 (98-113).

Use Trade Value Charts to Look for Positional Swaps

Let’s say I have a ton of RB depth, and I want to trade an RB of 35 value for a WR. I'll look for WRs around 35 in value and check the rosters to see if they are weak at RB.

I'm looking for “win-win” trades that are likely to get done.

I find sending lopsided and/or nonsense trades that aren’t helping both sides wastes time.

Fantasy Trade Value Chart Vs. Market – Week 3

Fantasy Trade Targets

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

DS Value: 67.5
Market: 55.5
Profit: +12

Through the first two weeks, Mixon has accounted for nearly 76% of the team's rush attempts while having a 14% target share. In a league devoid of bell-cow running backs, Mixon is a bell-cow running back.

He will finish the season with more than 0 TDs and is a prime buy-low candidate.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

DS Value: 92
Market: 79
Profit: +13

Diggs is our WR4 for the rest of the season. Above Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown. All great players. 

The market isn’t really “low” on him. We all pretty much agree he is excellent. 

But, we are proposing he is at another level. Diggs is valued closer to the Jefferson/Hill tier than the St. Brown/CeeDee tier. 

He will be a challenging player to acquire. You will likely have to send a solid WR (Tier 2 or 3) and a depth RB piece (tier 3 or 4) to get the trade done. 

If your team can handle consolidating your depth, go for it!

Honorable mentions:

Fantasy Sells 

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

DS Value: 18
Market: 33 
Disparity: -15

Through the first two weeks, PFF has Justin Fields ranked as the 29th-best passing QB. And if you have been forced to watch any of the Bears’ games, you would probably agree. 

Fields is not processing the field well, and the play-calling isn't utilizing his strengths. This season looks like a disaster for all Bears players, including Moore. 

In Week 2, 7 targets turned into 6 receptions for 104 yards and no TDs. The market still values Moore as a top-24 option. We have him down at WR32.

That gap makes him a sell.

Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins

DS Value: 38
Market: 63.5
Disparity: -25.5

Per PFF, Waddle and Courtland Sutton are tied for 39th expected PPR points per game. 

Expected points look at what “should have" happened based on a player's usage. Typically, these numbers regress to the mean over an entire season. It is a good metric for looking for positive or negative regression candidates. 

Waddle finished as the WR27 in expected PPR points per game last year in 2022. His 2023 ADP, however, matched his WR13 ranking in actual PPR points per game. 

Waddle is a great player on a solid offense, but he was overvalued going into the season. If you can sell him for his market rate, do it.

He is not a must-sell, but a “can-sell.” Of course, you might need to wait until he's out of the concussion protocol.

Honorable mentions:

Fantasy Holds

Kenneth Gainwell and D’Andre Swift, RBs, Philadelphia Eagles

Hold all ambiguous backfields tight. We lost even more RBs last week:

• Nick Chubb for the season
• David Montgomery
• Jamaal Williams
• Saquon Barkley

Now is the time to hold on tight to all upside RBs. 

In Week 1, Gainwell started and led the backfield with a 56% carry share and 12% target share. Swift got 4% and 4.5%, respectively.

Swift was an afterthought. The Philadelphia coaching staff decided Gainwell was the dude in Week 1. 

Week 2 saw Swift take over, with Gainwell out nursing a rib injury. The Minnesota defense dared the Eagles to run – Swift went off with 28 rush attempts for 175 yards and 3 receptions for 6 yards.

He handled 58% of the rushing work and had a 13% target share. He was THE dude. 

Who will it be in Week 3?

Great question. We don’t know. Is it both? Will it be Boston Scott for no reason? Maybe Rashaad Penny gets in there?

Week 3 should be illuminating. But until then, both are holds.

Trading is Just Part of Your In-Season Strategy

Want more strategy tips on how to refine and guide your fantasy football roster throughout the season? Check out this video.