Aging, Altered 49ers Present Sneaky Fantasy Upside

San Francisco 49ers 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR Mike Evans
• WR De'Zhaun Stribling
• WR Christian Kirk
• RB Kaelon Black

Key Departures

• WR Jauan Jennings

Brock Purdy

2025: QB Showed Usual Accuracy … When He Could Play

Purdy’s 2025 story has to start with the turf toe that significantly disrupted his availability and probably impacted his play at times when he was on the field.

The QB suffered the initial injury in Week 1 and missed the next two contests. He returned for a Week 4 loss to the Jaguars, completed an uncharacteristic 57.9% of his passes (Purdy typically ranks among the most accurate passers), and flung 2 INTs. Purdy also aggravated the toe in that game and missed the next six weeks.

He returned for Week 11 and managed to stay on the field from there. Despite a Week 12 stinker against Carolina (193 yards and 3 INTs), Purdy also looked more like what we’ve come to expect over those final seven games:

• 70.6% completions
• 225.9 yards per game
• 2.3 passing TDs per game
• 0.9 INTs per game
• Solid 26-117-3 rushing line (4.5 yards per carry; 16.7 yards per game)

Purdy’s numbers stunk in the playoffs, but he faced a challenging Eagles defense in Round 1 and a championship Seahawks D in the lopsided Round 2 loss. His pass-catching corps also didn’t look very good by that point, but we’ll get to that a little later.

Missed Time Didn’t Cut Into His Effectiveness

For the season, Purdy actually delivered a career high in fantasy points per game (depending on your format) and ranked fifth at the position in that category. His nine appearances revealed some inconsistency … but also potential reason for optimism.

Purdy posted a QB14 finish in the opener and a QB12 finish in Week 4. He landed seventh among QB scorers in his Week 11 return but followed that with QB22 and QB16 finishes.

After the Week 14 bye, the Niners pilot reeled off consecutive finishes of QB3, QB1, and QB1 before a QB28 whimper against Seattle in the regular-season finale.

Matchups didn’t hurt in the late-season peak weeks, which came against Tennessee, Indy, and Chicago. They ranked 29th, 15th, and 25th in pass DVOA for the season, respectively.

High-End Efficiency Drives His Value

Purdy matched his career high for the season with a 69.4% completion rate, which also ranked third in the league among qualifiers. The only two guys ahead of him? Drake Maye and Purdy’s own backup, Mac Jones.

That speaks to the consistent efficiency of the Kyle Shanahan Niners offense, which has previously generated high-end rate stats for mediocre (or worse) QBs such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, and C.J. Beathard.

Purdy also hit 7.0% in passing-TD rate for the third time among his four pro seasons. How good is that? Lamar Jackson currently leads active QBs with a 6.5% career rate. Purdy’s second at 6.2%, with Aaron Rodgers (6.0%) the only other guy at 6+%.

Purdy also edged his personal best in passing success rate, a Pro Football Reference stat that measures how often a player delivers the “needed” yardage in a given situation. Purdy has led the league in that category in two of his three years as the season-opening starter.

Since his 2022 debut, Purdy also ranks:

• sixth in completion rate
• second in TD rate
• second in passer rating
• first in yards per pass attempt

The sneakiest factor in Purdy’s scoring profile might be his rushing. He ranks 17th among all QBs in rushing yards per game over the past two seasons (minimum 50 total carries), and four of the guys ahead of him won’t be starting this year:

• Anthony Richardson
• Justin Fields
• Tyler Huntley
• Marcus Mariota

Only six QBs have run for more TDs over the past two years, despite Purdy ranking just 17th in total rushing attempts.

His carries per game dipped from 4.4 in 2024 to 3.7 last year, and his yards per rush from 4.9 to 4.5. That’s understandable for a QB dealing with turf toe. And even at full health, Purdy will likely never see much designed rushing work. He only has 10 such carries through his four-year career to date, according to Pro Football Focus.

But a healthy Purdy is a plus scrambler, and all eight of his rushing scores over the past two years have come from inside the 10-yard line; five of those from the 5 or closer.

That can be a volatile stat, but San Francisco’s consistently high-end offense should keep those scoring opportunities available.

Numbers Came Despite Lackluster Supporting Cast

Purdy’s strong efficiency numbers for 2025 look even better when you remember what he had around him.

Christian McCaffrey stayed healthy all year and will always help an offense. But he garnered 39 more targets than anyone else on the team. That short-range dynamo will help a QB’s completion rate, but a lack of non-RB assistance usually makes it tougher to maximize yardage and scoring.

WR Jauan Jennings drew the second-most targets last year, despite missing two games and playing through injuries in at least several others. TE George Kittle ranked third despite missing five full games (and most of the opener) with a hamstring tear plus another with a sprained ankle.

Behind them sat:

• 30-year-old WR Kendrick Bourne
• Nine games of WR Ricky Pearsall (knee injury)
• Backup TE Jake Tonges
• 31-year-old WR Demarcus Robinson
• FB Kyle Juszczyk

… and then a smattering of guys drawing 14 targets or fewer apiece.

That was a markedly worse pass-catching group than in Purdy’s previous three campaigns.

2026 Presents Reasons for Optimism

Purdy made it back from injury for the end of last season and continues to play for Shanahan. So the most important factor for his 2026 outlook seems like San Francisco’s offensive imports.

The Niners signed WR Mike Evans in free agency. You probably know the résumé, but here are a few highlights:

• More than 1,000 receiving yards for 11 straight seasons before last year
• 11+ TD catches in four of his past six seasons
• 10th-most career TD receptions in NFL history
• 4.9 receptions per game for his career

Evans notably missed a career-high nine games last season, thanks to a hamstring injury, clavicle fracture, and concussion. The hamstring issue is most troubling, because it has popped up in some form every year since 2019. But he missed just 12 total games across 11 seasons before last year. So we’re not gonna overrate that factor for Purdy’s purposes.

San Francisco also added WR Christian Kirk in free agency and drafted WR De’Zhaun Stribling at the top of Round 2. But Evans easily outweighs both in potential impact.

The Niners should also get a healthier version of Pearsall, a former first-round pick who has flashed high-end potential amid last year’s knee trouble and the gunshot wound that delayed the start of his rookie year. Pearsall and Evans could give Purdy the best WR duo he’s had since at least 2023, the last time he got double-digit games from both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Kittle’s status will be worth watching as well. He suffered an Achilles’ tear in the playoff win at Philadelphia. Reports on his recovery have been glowing vs. the severity of the injury, but we’ll have to watch to see both how soon he’s ready to play and how close he seems to full strength.

Anything close to a full-strength Kittle offers obvious help to a QB’s passing outlook.

Altogether, this year’s pass-catching crew looks at least better than what the 49ers typically ran out last year -- and potentially stronger than the 2024 version as well.

Shanahan Keeps Lifting the Floor

Shanahan’s offense probably doesn’t need a case built for it at this point. But just in case you’re wondering, his 49ers have ranked seventh or higher in six of the past seven seasons, including each of the past five.

Five straight Niners teams have ranked sixth or higher in net yards per pass attempt, which incorporates sacks, and five of Shanahan’s eight offenses have ranked third or higher in that category.

In short, this has been a consistently strong and efficient offense that regularly puts players in position to maximize their output potential.

High Floor Beats Ceiling Case with Purdy

Purdy took over as 49ers starter over the final third of his rookie season and opened 2023 as the guy. Over the past three seasons, he has generated the sixth-most fantasy points per game at the position. He finished those years seventh, ninth, and fifth in points per game.

The case for Purdy is more about floor than ceiling. His accuracy, mobility, and Shanahan’s system make him a strong bet to finish among the top 12 QBs, and he did it last year despite a lackluster supporting cast.

Barring injury, Purdy looks like as safe a bet as anyone in his range of QB ADP.

Christian McCaffrey

Healthy CMC Still Breaks Fantasy

You’ve probably heard that McCaffrey led all RBs in scoring last year -- 2.6 points per game ahead of his nearest PPR competitor (Bijan Robinson), depending on your format. So let’s refresh on his past few years …

• 2022: 17 games split between Carolina (six) and San Francisco (11); RB2 in PPR points per game (behind Austin Ekeler)
• 2023: 16 games with the 49ers; 3.3 points per game ahead of No. 2 (Kyren Williams), and another 3.4 PPG ahead of No. 3
• 2024: just four games, thanks to issues with both Achilles’ tendons; the fantasy world wept
• 2025: 17 games; loads of points.

McCaffrey has topped 100 targets two of his past three healthy seasons. The other one merely found him rushing for a career-high 5.4 yards per rush and setting career highs with 7 TD catches and 21 total TDs.

He matched that TD-catch high last season, drew the second-most targets of his career, cracked 9.0 yards per catch for the second straight season and third time in his career, and reached 300 carries in a season for the first time.

But There Might Be One Thing to Worry About

McCaffrey’s high-scoring, high-volume, healthy, 2025 made it easy to overlook a decline in rushing efficiency.

His 3.9 yards per rush marked his lowest average since a three-game 2020. It nearly matched the 4.0 of his four-game 2024, which we could have otherwise dismissed because of the calf issues.

McCaffrey also posted his lowest rush yards over expected per attempt since NFL Next Gen Stats started tracking. His minus-0.54 mark ranked fifth-worst among 51 qualifiers, ahead of only:

• Bucky Irving
• Michael Carter
• Alvin Kamara
• R.J. Harvey

That marked a particularly steep drop from McCaffrey’s 1.34 of 2023. Pro Football Focus also credited him with his lowest rushing grade since his 2017 rookie season and the worst breakaway percentage (share of yards gained on designed runs that went 15+ yards) of his career. McCaffrey’s 16.7% in that category ranked 42nd among 51 RBs who carried at least 90 times last year. Here’s the crew that trailed him:

• Rachaad White
• Alvin Kamara
• Bucky Irving
• Michael Carter
• Devin Singletary
• Kareem Hunt
• Isiah Pacheco
• Emanuel Wilson
• Chuba Hubbard

Brian Robinson Jr. -- San Francisco’s No. 2 RB in 2025 -- sat one spot ahead of McCaffrey at 16.8%.

CMC tied for fourth-best in that category in 2023, at 34.5%.

To be fair, the cast surrounding McCaffrey probably helped his workload volume while hindering his efficiency. A struggling Niners pass-catching corps helped afford him the league’s highest RB target share (21.3%) on top of the league’s fourth-largest carry share (64.7%).

But McCaffrey’s yards before contact per attempt fell from a career-high 3.1 in 2023 to just 2.3 last season. That ranked 25th among qualifiers and below the league average of 2.5. McCaffrey’s endured just two lower marks among his eight seasons, and they came in a three-game 2020 and seven-game 2021, both with the Panthers.

That points to a lack of blocking support and obviously makes it tougher to gain yards at an efficient clip.

He Didn’t Go Totally Injury Free

McCaffrey made it into every game for the 49ers last season, but that makes it easy to forget that he carried a “questionable” tag into Week 1 with a calf strain that made us all hold our breath.

CMC added a back issue in Week 15 and a shoulder ding in the playoff loss to Seattle but didn’t lose time to either.

None of those cases carries specific relevance to 2026, but we’ll need to keep an eye out for any reports of calf issues in particular leading up to the season.

2026 Outlook Leads with One Key Question

Here’s the thing: We can dig as deep or shallow as we want into McCaffrey’s injury history, his potentially waning efficiency, San Francisco’s changes around him, and even the history of aging RBs. But the evaluation on him is simpler than all that:

If McCaffrey stays healthy, he’ll almost certainly keep getting plenty of work to support high-end fantasy finishes throughout the season. The biggest factor raising that floor is the receiving, which he reminded everyone about last season.

What if CMC gets hurt? Well, then he’s not gonna help your team. But that’s also true of every other player you’re considering in the first round.

Still, let’s look at what’s different around him.

49ers Probably Didn’t Upgrade RB2

San Francisco let Brian Robinson Jr. walk in free agency. Then they (surprisingly) spent a third-round pick on Indiana RB Kaelon Black.

He’ll turn 25 in the middle of his rookie season, never reached 200 touches in a college season, and didn’t lead last year’s Hoosiers backfield in carries or catches. Black’s also generally expected to trail 2025 fifth-round pick Jordan James in the battle for this year’s No. 2 job.

James carries more intrigue than Black but didn’t garner a touch in his rookie campaign thanks to injury. So he’s unproven at best.

The rest of the backfield ultimately presents no case for siphoning work from a healthy McCaffrey.

Offense Should Improve Around Him

Last year’s Niners watched only a hobbled Jauan Jennings and 11-game George Kittle join McCaffrey north of 53 targets for the season. That marked a weaker pass-catching corps than in McCaffrey’s previous time with the team.

So this year’s version added WR Mike Evans and WR Christian Kirk in free agency, as well as WR De’Zhaun Stribling in the draft. It also should get a healthier version of Ricky Pearsall, who lost eight games to a PCL sprain.

It should also get more QB Brock Purdy, who also missed eight games thanks to turf toe.

A replenished offense should create a better environment for yardage efficiency and scoring chances.

The O-line might continue to offer limited support, however. The Niners return almost entirely the same crew from last year, adding only low-level free-agent G Robert Jones and fourth-round rookie Carver Willis.

Mike Evans

2025 Was Nearly a Loss

Evans arrives in San Francisco off his worst season as a pro, thanks primarily to multiple injuries.

A hamstring strain arose in Week 3 and cost him the next three contests. Then came a concussion and broken clavicle (on the same play) in his Week 7 return, which sidelined the star wideout until Week 15. He made it through the remaining four games but played limited snap shares for at least two of them.

Evans appeared in just eight total games and reached 5 catches in a game only four times. He generated 36% of his receiving yardage for the season (132 yards) in the Week 15 loss to Atlanta.

That marked the only time all season that Evans finished higher than WR23. He landed among the top 30 just three other times.

You Might Know Evans from his Previous Work

Of course, we’re bothering to write about a 33-year-old receiver (as of Aug. 21) coming off a bad season because the rest of his career has gone pretty well.

Here’s how he ranked among WRs in PPR points per game leading up to 2025:

• 2014: 14th
• 2015: 22nd
• 2016: third
• 2017: 20th
• 2018: 10th
• 2019: fourth
• 2020: 16th
• 2021: ninth
• 2022: 16th
• 2023: 11th
• 2024: 11th

That’s seven straight years of top-16 production before last year’s injury debacle. And Evans navigated physical issues in many of those campaigns as well.

The hamstring segment of his injury history is particularly noteworthy. Evans has had a hamstring issue pop up in some form every season since 2019. He lost three games to a 2024 hammy injury. Before that, though, he missed just seven total weeks across his first 10 seasons.

2026 Presents Whole New Opportunity

Evans’ missed time has been backloaded in his career to date, but that doesn’t make it fluky.

Hamstring issues rank among the most worrisome for risk of recurrence, and the fact that Evans has lost three games to hamstring injuries each of the past two seasons certainly highlights a durability problem. Our Injury Predictor puts him at “High Risk” of missing some time in 2026. But his 5.00 Durability ranking also highlights Evans’ ability to play through more minor dings.

Now let’s get into why you shouldn’t simply ignore an old wideout with tattered hammies.

San Francisco Makes Rare Investment

HC Kyle Shanahan doesn’t typically import his target leaders. He drafts them.

The 49ers have not had a WR they didn’t draft rank among their top three at the position in targets since 2019, Shanahan’s third year on the job. Across his nine years in San Francisco, only Emmanuel Sanders in 2019 and Pierre Garcon in 2017 and 2018 have achieved that status.

The past couple of years, however, have seen the Niners allow Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings to walk, and descend into a feud with Brandon Aiyuk that has the wideout essentially gone. And the drafts since Aiyuk and Jennings arrived in 2020 haven’t quite replenished the supply.

That’s why the 49ers hit the market this offseason for:

• Evans: three years, $42.4 million, $14.3 million guaranteed
• Christian Kirk: one year, $3 million, $2.78 million guaranteed

The disparity between those deals highlights how highly the team values Evans, especially when you consider that he’s three years older than Kirk and clearly in the historical decline phase of the WR aging curve.

Evans the McCaffrey of Receivers?

That history gives us little basis for comparison at Evans’ position in San Francisco, but it harkens to another splashy move.

Shanahan’s offenses also used to be known for finding low-investment RBs and then wringing impressive production out of them. That dates back to before his San Fran tenure and even to the coaching career of his dad, Mike, and others from that Shanahan coaching tree.

But then the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey in 2022 and combined the top-shelf system with a top-shelf talent.

Evans will be seven years older when this season begins than McCaffrey was in 2022, so it’s obviously not a direct comparison (especially because they play different positions). But the point here is that the Niners didn’t pay up for an aging star WR just to give him a comfy place to end his career.

They’re chasing needed production.

Iffy Depth Chart Supplies Opportunity

Ricky Pearsall heads into his third season as easily the most promising WR prospect from that draft table above. But each of his first two years were halved by physical issues: the late-August gunshot wound of 2024 and then last year’s Week 4 PCL sprain.

Assuming he hits Week 1 healthy, he’ll start opposite Evans, and we remain fans of Pearsall’s upside. But the missed time still makes him fairly unproven.

Behind those guys, Kirk looks more like insurance than target threat. And rookie De’Zhaun Stribling will need to prove he’s ready for meaningful work. TE George Kittle also heads toward the season with some uncertainty around his recovery from a January Achilles’ tear.

McCaffrey obviously remains central to the offense and will continue to rank among the RB target leaders as long as he’s healthy, but there’s room for Evans to draw 20% or more of Niners targets this season.

Whatever share he gets will come in a pass offense that has finished five straight years among the league’s top 6 in net yards per pass attempt (which incorporates sacks). The team ranked top 4 in four of those seasons before missing QB Brock Purdy for eight games last year.

The 49ers have also ranked top-7 in total yards each of the past five years and top-13 in scoring each of those seasons.

Evans Might Need Vacated Targets to Hit Ceiling

If McCaffrey, Kittle, and Pearsall all play a full season, then Evans will probably have a hard time climbing beyond WR2 territory in fantasy scoring -- with some risk that he lingers in WR3 land.

He should generate yardage and TDs at efficient clips, given his history and that of Shanahan’s system with Purdy behind center. The question will be target share, and that could mean inconsistent weeks. But most WRs present that weekly issue to fantasy managers.

An injury to any of those players, however, would vacate some target share, raise Evans’ fantasy ceiling, and potentially even boost his weekly floor.

The biggest risk here, of course, comes in the above-average chance that Evans loses some time to injury.

Ricky Pearsall

2025 Was Another Rough One

Can we just get a healthy season from this guy to see what we’ve got?

You probably remember that Pearsall got shot just before his 2024 rookie campaign started. That kept him off the field until Week 7 and probably helped to limit his role through the 11 games after he returned.

Pearsall did see his usage increase at the end of the year and posted nice receiving lines of 8-141-1 and 6-69-1 to close out that season.

Momentum Carried Into 2025, Before His Knee Buckled

His second season started much more encouragingly. Pearsall hit Week 1 as a full-timer and posted these lines over the first three games:

• 4-108 on 7 targets
• 4-56 on 6 targets
• 8-117 on 11 targets

But then he left Week 4 early with a sprained right PCL that kept him out until Week 11. He tweaked that knee again in Week 15 -- just after the team’s Week 14 bye -- and missed one more game. That came late in a contest that still found him posting a nice receiving line (6-96 on 7 targets), and the wideout returned for a solid Week 17: 5 catches and 85 yards on 8 targets. He aggravated the knee again in that contest, costing him the season finale and playoff opener at Philly.

Pearsall’s other four regular-season appearances -- including the initial game he left early -- produced averages of just 3.5 targets, 2.3 catches, 16.5 yards and 7.3 yards per catch.

A complete lack of TDs for the season helped limit Pearsall to a WR47 finish in PPR points per game.

2026 Has to be Better … Right?

Everything starts with the durability questions here. We don’t have any signal as of this writing that Pearsall’s 2025 knee injury will inhibit him this summer, but we need the summer to prove that nothing’s lingering.

Pearsall also sprained an ankle late last season and dealt with hamstring trouble before the gunshot wound of 2024.

It’s also worth noting here, however, that Pearsall made it through five college seasons across two schools without losing time to injury.

His overall injury profile rates the wideout as only a “Medium Risk” by our Injury Predictor algorithm.

Starting Role Remains, But Competition Has Spiked

A healthy Pearsall should easily land a Week 1 starting role again, but the target picture has gotten more crowded than it was last year.

The 49ers let WR Jauan Jennings walk in free agency and are just delaying an official split with disgruntled WR Brandon Aiyuk. But the team also signed WR Mike Evans for $14 million a year in free agency, added veteran WR Christian Kirk on a small, one-year deal, and drafted WR De’Zhaun Stribling at the top of Round 2.

RB Christian McCaffrey and TE George Kittle return as passing-game leaders, though Kittle’s early-season status is in question coming off a January Achilles’ tear.

Enviable Offensive Environment Boosts Everyone

The 49ers should get a healthier Brock Purdy than they had last year, when he lost eight games to turf toe. That plunged the team all the way down to sixth in the league in net yards per pass attempt (which incorporates sacks). That marked the fifth straight season in which San Francisco ranked sixth or better, including four years among the league’s top 4.

Purdy has ranked among the most accurate and efficient passers in the league since arriving. Since his 2022 rookie season, Purdy ranks:

• sixth in completion rate
• second in TD rate
• second in passer rating
• first in yards per pass attempt

HC Kyle Shanahan’s scheme has generated that type of efficiency since even before Purdy arrived. If you’re healthy and playing well enough to stay involved, then the Shanahan-Purdy pairing is likely to boost your production profile.

What’s the Ceiling Look Like?

Pearsall entered last season with a pretty solid shot at leading the team in targets, with WR Jauan Jennings the biggest competitor at his position.

The former first-round pick could still edge Evans in targets per game, but that’s tougher to bet on. And Pearsall faces target challenges from Kittle and McCaffrey whenever they’re on the field as well.

Every one of those players carries some injury risk, though. McCaffrey made it through 17 games in 2025 but sat out 13 with tendonitis in both Achilles’ tendons the year before. Kittle will need to prove he’s all the way back from his January injury. And Evans lost three games to hamstring injuries each of the past two years.

Injuries to any of those guys would raise the ceiling for Pearsall by adding target upside. Evans looks like the most direct impactor.

As long as everyone’s healthy -- and Evans doesn’t show signs of meaningful physical decline -- it’s tough to envision Pearsall’s fantasy scoring climbing beyond WR3 range.

If Pearsall falters, whether because of injury or sheer performance, Stribling could challenge for his job.

George Kittle

2025 Delivered Numbers … and Trouble

Kittle sandwiched a pretty good 2025 campaign between a pair of nasty injuries.

He left Week 1 with a hamstring tear that cost him five games. In true Kittle fashion, though, he jumped right back in at 81% playing time in his Week 7 return and climbed from there until a left ankle sprain cost him Week 17.

The other half of the injury sandwich, though, was a torn right Achilles’ tendon that knocked him out in the second quarter of the playoff win at Philly. We’ll get to the 2026 ramifications a little later.

Active Kittle Still Wins Weeks

When he took the field last season, Kittle fared well. His 14.7 PPR points per game ranked second among TEs, and he got there even with a zero in his Week 7 return game.

Kittle endured just two single-digit fantasy scores among his other 10 outings. He finished outside the weekly top 18 just twice overall and landed inside the top 10 seven times. That included five top-6 finishes among his final seven appearances.

Kittle beat his own points per game by 1.1 the year before and finished four other seasons averaging 14.1 PPR points per game or more. His annual PPG ranks at the position have gone:

• 2017: 24th
• 2018: third
• 2019: second
• 2020: third
• 2021: fourth
• 2022: second
• 2023: sixth
• 2024: first
• 2025: second

It didn’t hurt last season that Kittle drew his highest target share across four seasons since QB Brock Purdy arrived, ranking fourth at the position. That marked only a modest climb vs. the previous three years, though.

Kittle did post a career-low 4.5 yards after catch per reception last season, according to Pro Football Focus, despite a career-short 7.1-yard average depth of target. But his 2.11 yards per route still ranked fourth among 51 TEs who drew 30+ targets, and Kittle showed no other meaningful signs of performance decline.

The dip in yards after catch also seems plenty understandable for a guy who lost five early-season games to a hamstring tear.

Injuries Aren’t New Here

Kittle has only played every game once among his nine pro seasons, back in 2018. Since then, he has missed 2+ games in six of seven campaigns with injuries including these body parts: hamstring, groin, knee, calf, foot (fracture), knee.

2026 Presents Challenging Questions

We should expect some time lost to injury with this guy. But the new factor this season will be figuring out how to treat the Achilles’ issue he’s bringing from January.

Recent history doesn’t give us much help in judging what performance level we can expect from Kittle coming off this injury. The most recent examples of fantasy-relevant pass catchers returning from Achilles’ tears appear to be:

• Demaryius Thomas in 2011
• Michael Crabtree in 2013

Thomas’ injury occurred in February of that year. He wound up missing the first five games of that season and then averaging just 2.9 catches per game across 11 appearances. But that was also just his second year in the league (and he averaged a mere 2.2 catches per game the year before).

Crabtree tore his right Achilles’ in May 2013. He would play just five games that season and then see his yards per catch dip to a career-low 10.3 the following year.

Given that we’re now 13+ years beyond both situations, it’s fair to assume surgery and treatment have advanced to the point that those cases might be totally irrelevant for projecting Kittle.

Focus on Kittle’s Activity First, But There are Other Factors

Kittle said in June that Dr. Neal ElAttrache told him at the time of the surgery, “Hey, I think if you do everything the right way, you have a chance [to play Week 1].”

Kittle has certainly been a “do everything the right way” type in terms of offseason prep throughout his career and has remained optimistic for his return timeline. We’ll obviously have to track reports on his practice participation and performance right up until he actually plays in a game, though.

And this is about more than just whether he plays. Here’s how ESPN film guy Ben Solak puts it: “Tight end isn’t a position that demands quick and explosive movements, but Kittle has been the preeminent big-play tight end since he entered the league. His 13.5 yards per reception leads all tight ends over the past four seasons.” That even includes Kittle’s career-low 11.0 yards per catch last season.

Any loss of explosiveness -- and we should expect at least some coming off the Achilles’ tear -- will lower his fantasy ceiling.

Niners Add Target Challengers

Another potential risk factor is the altered depth chart of pass catchers. San Francisco gave WR Mike Evans $14 million per year on a three-year deal in free agency. The team also gets WR Ricky Pearsall back healthy after he lost eight games to a knee injury last season. And the Niners drafted WR De’Zhaun Stribling at the top of Round 2 and signed WR Christian Kirk to a small, one-year contract.

That crew won’t marginalize an active Kittle, but they could certainly cut into his target share. Fewer targets at decreased efficiency would challenge the high ceiling we’ve come to expect.

Kittle will at least remain in one of the league’s most consistently efficient offenses. San Francisco has finished five straight seasons among the league’s top 6 in net yards per pass attempt (which incorporates sacks). And the Niners should get more Brock Purdy than they had last year, when he missed eight games with turf toe.