Week 1 Quarterback Preview: Adjust Your Expectations for Josh Allen
Top Fantasy QBs for Week 1
Let's review the key usage notes and matchups that are driving our Week 1 QB Rankings.
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1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson started last season hot as the QB2 overall over the first four weeks. Hamstring and toe injuries hampered him for most of the season where he didn’t appear 100% for most of the year. He ran for a career low in rushing last year as well. Jackson should be back to full health and gets a new OC in Declan Doyle this week. Jackson faces a Colts defense that was middle of the pack in defensive DVOA last year at 19th against the pass and 15th against the run.
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Washington's defense added the fifth-largest boost to QB scoring last season, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. Nice place for Hurts to start his first game under another new OC.
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow enters the season healthy, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins set to suit up following minor summer injuries. He draws a Bucs pass defense that ranked second-worst in fantasy points allowed last season. While Tampa should improve in 2026, the Bengals are still implied for the third-most points on the slate (27). Burrow is an easy QB1.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen opens with the toughest matchup he'll face all season. Last year's Texans ranked second in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and limited Allen to 253 scoreless passing yards in a Week 12 meeting. This defense also held him to a 131-1-0 passing line in 2024. We're not recommending sitting Allen in most cases, but don't count on a week-winning outing from him.
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert debuts in OC Mike McDaniel's offense in a cushy spot at home for a non-threatening Cardinals defense. The Chargers' 28.5-point implied total is highest of the week.
6. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams took a step forward last season with Ben Johnson joining the team as a the HC, especially late in the year. Williams was a top-12 QB in six of the final 10 games. He did lead the league with a 14.6% inaccurate throw rate last season, so there is progress to be made. Williams' rushing also helps, as he ended last season with 388 yards and 3 TDs. The Panthers ranked 23rd in passing defense DVOA, so it should be a matchup where Williams can have success.
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland presented the sixth-worst matchup for QB scoring last year. But the Browns then traded away start Edge Myles Garrett and replaced he coaching staff. New DC Mike Rutenberg hasn't previously coordinated a defense at any level. (He served as Atlanta's defensive pass-game coordinator last year.) So we'll start the year believing in Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense after last year's hot finish over worrying too much about the matchup.
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were one of three WR pairs to both score at least 14 PPR points per game last season. Prescott gets both key weapons healthy to start the season, giving him a strong Week 1 setup. He also brings plenty of volume after finishing second in pass attempts last year. That combination puts him firmly in QB1 territory.
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff has historically been better at home than on the road. That didn't hold last year ... because Goff was good everywhere. He delivered 279.4 yards per game and 18 TD passes to 3 INTs in 2025 home games. He also averaged 258.8 yards on the road and tossed 16 TDs to just 5 INTs. The Saints presented a negative scoring matchup for QBs last year but ranked just 19th in pass-defense DVOA. So there's nothing truly worrisome about the matchup.
10. Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings
Murray had the worst year of his career last year. He has a top-12 fantasy QB game in the five games he played. But now Murray gets to join HC Kevin O’Connell in a QB friendly environment. Murray has been a top-12 QB in points per game over the first six years of his career however. Murray’s rushing gives him QB1 upside against a Packers defense that was 25th in pass DVOA last season and will be missing Micah Parsons.
11. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Played on Wednesday
12. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Dart joined Josh Allen as the only QBs to achieve at least 7.0 points per game strictly as a rusher last season. That level of rushing production, combined with the likely presence of Malik Nabers, gives Dart a QB1 projection to open the 2026 campaign.
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield enters 2026 without Mike Evans and likely Jalen McMillan, who’s listed as doubtful with a knee. Fortunately, Emeka Egbuka (toe) will be available. Cincinnati upgraded its defense this offseason, most notably with DL Dexter Lawrence, but this is still a unit coming off a 30th-place finish in points allowed and 26th in passing yards allowed. Mayfield’s upside certainly extends into QB1 territory.
14. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels' hopeful comeback season gets a tough opening. The Eagles yielded a league-low 14 TD passes last season. They did, however, allow the second-most QB rushing yards and rushing TDs. We've got Daniels projected lower than where he'll check in most weeks. But reaching too far to avoid him could backfire.
15. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Played Thursday night.
16. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Played Thursday night.
17. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
The Lions presented the ninth-best scoring matchup for fantasy QBs last season. That gives Shough upside. But it's risky to make a Week 1 bet on a second-year QB with just nine career starts, especially when he's playing on the road and his team carries the ninth-lowest implied total for the week.
18. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Last year, Love ranked 21st in fantasy points per game. He did post the second-highest rushing total of his career with 199 yards, and that could translate this year with Josh Jacobs currently on the commissioner's exempt list. That could also boost Love’s passing appeal, but he lacks ideal upside. Treat Love as a QB2 against the Brian Flores-led Vikings.
19. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Nix opens in a tough spot in primetime on the road in Kansas City. In two career games at Arrowhead, he's posted 215-2-0 and 182-1-1 passing lines. Nix is a shaky QB1 play.
20. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
Willis enters his first Dolphins start with only six previous NFL starts on his résumé. Vegas presents a favorable matchup after finishing 27th in pressure rate last season, while its secondary enters the year with plenty of questions. Willis’ rushing gives him some appeal, but the passing production could be limited as Miami sorts through an unproven WR group. Our current projection of 181 passing yards helps keep him in QB2 territory.
21. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes makes his first start since last December's multi-ligament knee injury against a Broncos defense that's had his number lately. Over the last three seasons, Denver has limited Mahomes to 6.6 yards per attempt with 3 TDs and 4 INTs. We'd try not to start him in 1-QB leagues this week.
22. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
Brissett feasted on volume last year, averaging 40.3 pass attempts across his 12 starts. We can't bank on that volume again this season, but the Cardinals open the season as 10.5-point underdogs against the Chargers. So another 40-attempt game is on the table here.
23. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Young hasn't finished higher than QB26 over his career. The Panthers were very run heavy last year, passing 4% below expectations according to Sharp Football. He isn't a good start this week until we see if the offense is willing to give Young more room to operate.
24. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud will need to earn his way into QB1 consideration after an ugly finish to last season, especially after losing No. 2 WR Jayden Higgins to an ACL tear. Stroud opens vs. a Bills defense that ranked seventh against QBs in 2025.
25. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Played Wednesday night.
