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Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 11

By Jared Smola | Updated on Mon, 15 Apr 2024 . 11:28 AM EDT

Welcome to Week 11’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 11 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 11!

 

Highest Game Totals

t-1. Cardinals at Texans (48.0)

t-1. Bears at Lions (48.0)

t-3. Seahawks at Rams (46.5)

t-3. Bengals at Ravens (46.5)

t-5. Raiders at Dolphins (45.5)

t-5. Eagles at Chiefs (45.5)

  

Lowest Game Totals

t-9. Vikings at Broncos (41.5)

t-9. Buccaneers at 49ers (41.5)

t-11. Titans at Jaguars (39.5)

t-11. Jets at Bills (39.5)

13. Giants at Commanders (38.0)

14. Steelers at Browns (33.0)

  

Highest Implied Points

1. Dolphins (30.0)

2. Lions (28.0)

3. 49ers (27.5)

3. Texans (26.75)

5. Cowboys (26.5)

   

Lowest Implied Points

t-23. Panthers (16.0)

t-23. Raiders (16.0)

25. Jets (15.75)

26. Steelers (15.25)

27. Giants (14.25)

28. Buccaneers (14.0)

   

Pass Rate Over Expected + Neutral Pace

Here's where every team ranks in Pass Rate Over Expected, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and plays per game.

We’re now using just the past four weeks of Pass Rate Over Expected and neutral pace data to give us a fresher look at how these offenses are playing.

 

Total Points Per Game

Who's playing in shootouts? Who's playing in low-scoring games?

Here's where every team ranks in points per game + points allowed per game (with overtime removed):

 

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Jets at Bills (24.9 seconds)

2. Steelers at Browns (26.3 seconds)

3. Cowboys at Panthers (26.6 seconds)

4. Seahawks at Rams (26.6 seconds)

5. Cardinals at Texans (27.1 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

10. Titans at Jaguars (28.2 seconds)

11. Vikings at Broncos (28.4 seconds)

12. Eagles at Chiefs (28.6 seconds)

13. Raiders at Dolphins (28.6 seconds)

14. Bengals at Ravens (29.0 seconds)

 

Weather Concerns

Vikings at Broncos

A 50-60% chance of rain during the game. 10 mph sustained winds with possible gusts of 25+. A little ugly, but not enough to significantly alter projections for this game.

Eagles at Chiefs

We're still over 24 hours from this kickoff, so tough to get a precise forecast. But there's potential for rain and winds of 10-15 mph. Not ideal, but as of now, it doesn't look like weather will be a major factor in this Super Bowl rematch.

  

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Texans vs. Cardinals (+77.0%)

2. 49ers vs. Buccaneers (+71.3%)

3. Lions vs. Bears (+63.4%)

4. Vikings at Broncos (+53.6%)

5. Chiefs vs. Eagles (+52.1%)

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Titans at Jaguars (-5.0%)

25. Browns vs. Steelers (-15.3%)

26. Bengals at Ravens (-20.8%)

27. Steelers at Browns (-24.8%)

28. Panthers vs. Cowboys (-29.2%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jordan Love vs. Chargers (+38.8%)

2. Tommy DeVito at Commanders (+29.6%)

3. Patrick Mahomes vs. Eagles (+26.7%)

4. C.J. Stroud vs. Cardinals (+20.2%)

5. Justin Fields at Lions (+17.8%)

5 Worst QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Jalen Hurts at Chiefs (-22.5%)

25. Kenny Pickett at Browns (-25.4%)

26. Dak Prescott at Panthers (-25.5%)

27. Josh Allen vs. Jets (-28.6%)

28. Joe Burrow at Ravens (-37.8%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Murray looked better than expected in his 2023 debut last week.

He completed just 59% of his passes, notably missing a long TD to a wide-open Marquise Brown.

But he registered a big 10.4-yard average depth of throw, which helped him average 7.8 yards per attempt.

More importantly, Murray looked close to 100% as a runner. He carried six times for 33 yards and a score. That included four designed carries, two of which came in the red zone.

There's passing and rushing upside here in a potential Week 11 shootout against the Texans' 26th-ranked QB defense.

Josh Dobbs, Vikings

Dobbs was excellent in his first start for Minnesota last week, throwing for 268 yards and a score and running for 44 yards and another TD.

He finished QB4 in fantasy points on the week and now has five top-10 finishes on the season across his Cardinals and Vikings games.

Dobbs gets a Broncos defense on Sunday night that's playing much better lately. And WR Justin Jefferson will remain sidelined.

But Dobbs' rushing production (55 yards per game with the Vikings, 37 yards per game on the season) gives him a shot at another top-10 fantasy finish.

   

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Ravens vs. Bengals (+28.2%)

2. Dolphins vs. Raiders (+22.4%)

3. Cowboys at Panthers (+0.5%)

4. Commanders vs. Giants (+0.2%)

5. Eagles at Chiefs (-0.9%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Steelers at Browns (-32.9%)

25. Jets at Bills (-36.1%)

26. Chiefs vs. Eagles (-36.4%)

27. Panthers vs. Cowboys (-42.2%)

28. Giants at Commanders (-42.7%)

 

5 Best RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Vikings at Broncos (+67.5%)

2. Cowboys at Panthers (+32.3%)

3. Texans vs. Cardinals (+22.0%)

4. Rams vs. Seahawks (+20.2%)

5. Commanders vs. Giants (+18.3%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Broncos vs. Vikings (-22.4%)

25. Steelers at Browns (-24.9%)

26. Eagles at Chiefs (-26.0%)

27. 49ers vs. Buccaneers (-31.8%)

28. Chiefs vs. Eagles (-38.8%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Keaton Mitchell, Ravens

The floor here is low.

Mitchell tallied just three carries and two targets last week. Even in a busier Week 9, he played just 18% of Baltimore's offensive snaps.

But HC John Harbaugh said Monday that he wants to get Mitchell more work going forward. Makes sense considering how explosive the rookie has been.

If Harbaugh follows through, there's big upside for Mitchell on Thursday night against a Bengals team that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 4.6 yards per carry to opposing RBs.

   

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Giants at Commanders (+49.7%)

2. Chiefs vs. Eagles (+31.8%)

3. Browns vs. Steelers (+25.6%)

4. 49ers vs. Buccaneers (+20.7%)

5. Broncos vs. Vikings (+19.6%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Eagles at Chiefs (-17.6%)

25. Panthers vs. Cowboys (-19.3%)

26. Steelers at Browns (-21.2%)

27. Cowboys at Panthers (-25.7%)

28. Bills vs. Jets (-39.7%)

 

CB Matchup Upgrades

Chargers WRs Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Jalen Guyton vs. Packers CBs Corey Ballentine, Carrington Valentine, and Keisean Nixon

49ers WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel vs. Buccaneers CBs Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis

Panthers WR Adam Thielen vs. Cowboys CB Jourdan Lewis

Texans WRs Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown vs. Cardinals CBs Marco Wilson, Antonio Hamilton, and Garrett Williams

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks and Cordale Flott

  

CB Matchup Downgrades

Bills WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed

Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs. Seahawks CBs Tariq Woolen, Tre Brown, and Devon Witherspoon

Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Chiefs WR L’Jarius Sneed

Steelers WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson

   

Sneaky Starters

Rashee Rice, Chiefs

Rice has become a regular in this section -- and he's often delivered.

The rookie has finished as a top-34 PPR WR in four of his last five outings, including a pair of top-24 finishes.

And he's done it despite his route rate hovering in a just-ok 50-65% range.

There's at least a chance that the Chiefs are ready to give Rice more playing time coming off the bye week.

And the matchup is excellent against the pass-funnel Eagles. Philadelphia ranks second in run defense DVOA but 22nd in pass defense. As a result, offenses have registered the highest pass rate over expected against the Eagles.

Expect an extreme pass-heavy game plan from the Chiefs on Monday night, boosting Rice's target potential.

Jahan Dotson, Commanders

This one is scary, with Dotson coming off a two-target, zero-catch outing.

But nothing changed with his playing time last week. He ran a route on 44 of 47 Washington pass plays (94%).

And remember that he racked up 26 targets, 17 catches, 220 yards, and two TDs over his previous three games.

There's bounce-back potential vs. a bad Giants secondary that ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

  

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Lions vs. Bears (+40.6%)

2. Seahawks at Rams (+38.9%)

3. Cardinals at Texans (+37.5%)

4. Packers vs. Chargers (+31.4%)

5. Jets at Bills (+20.3%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Browns vs. Steelers (-26.8%)

25. Texans vs. Cardinals (-28.0%)

26. Cowboys at Panthers (-33.5%)

27. Jaguars vs. Titans (-37.4%)

28. Steelers at Browns (-50.2%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Luke Musgrave, Packers

Although it's come on just eight total targets, Musgrave has tallied five catches, 105 yards, and a TD over the last two weeks, flashing the big-play ability that his 97th percentile Relative Athletic Score suggested was there.

Sunday brings an excellent matchup against the Chargers, who rank 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Los Angeles ranks bottom-five in catches and yards allowed to the position.

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders vs. Giants (+99.3%)

2. Cowboys at Panthers (+67.9%)

3. Giants at Commanders (+60.4%)

4. Lions vs. Bears (+60.3%)

5. Bills vs. Jets (+45.0%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Bears at Lions (-36.3%)

25. Panthers vs. Cowboys (-37.1%)

26. Cardinals at Texans (-52.5%)

27. Packers vs. Chargers (-60.4%)

28. Buccaneers at 49ers (-70.1%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Commanders

Consider this "DST against Tommy DeVito," rather than the Commanders defense.

DeVito has taken a sack on 19.4% of his drop backs over the last three weeks. For comparison, Daniel Jones "leads" qualifying QBs with a 15.8% sack rate this season. Only four other QBs have a sack rate of 10+%.

Yes, DeVito just faced the Cowboys' elite pass rush. But he also took six sacks against the Raiders the week prior. Las Vegas has 18 sacks in their other nine games.

DeVito has also thrown three INTs over the last two weeks.

Jaguars

Rookie QB Will Levis has thrown one INT and taken four sacks in back-to-back games.

The Jaguars are 6.5-point home favorites this weekend. So if this game goes according to script, Levis will be dropping back more than the Titans want.

  

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Randy Bullock at Commanders (+50.1%)

2. Brandon McManus vs. Titans (+29.1%)

3. Jason Myers at Rams (+26.8%)

4. Tyler Bass vs. Jets (+23.0%)

5. Greg Joseph at Broncos (+21.6%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Justin Tucker vs. Bengals (-20.8%)

25. Harrison Butker vs. Eagles (-26.8%)

26. Chris Boswell at Browns (-33.4%)

27. Eddy Pineiro vs. Cowboys (-37.4%)

28. Jake Elliott at Chiefs (-45.3%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Brandon McManus, Jaguars

McManus has been a boom-or-bust fantasy play this season, with four games of 3+ FGs but just one FG in the other five games.

Week 11 looks like a boom spot with the Jaguars 6.5-point home favorites against the Titans, who rank 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers.

Jason Myers, Seahawks

He's coming off a five-FG outing and now has multiple FGs in five of nine games this season.

Myers' Seahawks have a solid 22.5-point implied total this week in Los Angeles, where there will be no weather concerns.

The Rams rank 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers.

  

Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

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