Show Navigation
Show Menu

Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 13

By Jared Smola 11:09am EST 12/3/23

Welcome to Week 13’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 13 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 13!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Dolphins at Commanders (49.5)

t-2. Seahawks at Cowboys (47.5)

t-2. Broncos at Texans (47.5)

t-2. Lions at Saints (47.5)

5. 49ers at Eagles (47.0)

  

Lowest Game Totals

9. Browns at Rams (40.0)

t-10. Chargers at Patriots (39.0)

t-10. Bengals at Jaguars (39.0)

12. Panthers at Buccaneers (36.5)

13. Falcons at Jets (33.5)

  

Highest Implied Points

1. Dolphins (29.25)

2. Cowboys (28.5)

3. Lions (26.25)

4. Texans (25.25)

5. 49ers (25.0)

  

Lowest Implied Points

22. Cardinals (17.25)

t-23. Patriots (16.75)

t-23. Panthers (16.75)

25. Jets (15.75)

26. Bengals (14.5)

  

Pass Rate Over Expected + Neutral Pace

Here's where every team ranks in Pass Rate Over Expected, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and plays per game.

We’re now using just the past four weeks of Pass Rate Over Expected and neutral pace data to give us a fresher look at how these offenses are playing.

  

Total Points Per Game

Who's playing in shootouts? Who's playing in low-scoring games?

Here's where every team ranks in points per game + points allowed per game (with overtime removed):

    

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap over last four weeks)

1. Seahawks at Cowboys (24.4 seconds)

2. Lions at Saints (26.0 seconds)

3. Chargers at Patriots (26.2 seconds)

4. Falcons at Jets (26.4 seconds)

5. Browns at Rams (26.6 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap over last four weeks)

9. Panthers at Bucs (27.7 seconds)

t-10. Dolphins at Commanders (28.0 seconds)

t-10. Cardinals at Steelers (28.0 seconds)

12. 49ers at Eagles (28.6 seconds)

13. Bengals at Jaguars (29.7 seconds)

  

Weather Concerns

Chargers at Patriots

85-90% chance of rain throughout the game. Winds will be light, but it still won't be ideal conditions for scoring. This over/under has dropped from 42.5 to 39.0

Falcons at Jets

95% chance of rain throughout the game. Wind shouldn't be an issue, but expect lots of running from both offenses in this one. A disgustingly low 33.5-point over/under.

Cardinals at Steelers

Potential for rain during the second half of this game. Winds between 7-14 mph. Not enough to impact our projections.

  

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. 49ers at Eagles (+77.3%)

2. Dolphins at Commanders (+74.4%)

3. Texans vs. Broncos (+62.4%)

4. Chiefs at Packers (+44.4%)

5. Cowboys vs. Seahawks (+40.0%)

  

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

22. Jets vs. Falcons (-0.6%)

23. Browns at Rams (-6.5%)

24. Panthers at Buccaneers (-11.4%)

25. Cardinals at Steelers (-15.3%)

26. Falcons at Jets (-15.6%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Tua Tagovailoa at Commanders (+35.5%)

2. Brock Purdy at Eagles (+31.2%)

3. Patriots QB vs. Chargers (+30.3%)

4. Derek Carr vs. Lions (+24.4%)

5. Russell Wilson at Texans (+23.2%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Justin Herbert at Patriots (-21.6%)

23 Baker Mayfield vs. Panthers (-24.3%)

t-24. Jalen Hurts vs. 49ers (-24.6%)

t-24. Matt Stafford vs. Browns (-24.6%)

26. Desmond Ridder at Jets (-30.3%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Russell Wilson, Broncos

Wilson ranks 14th among QBs in fantasy points per game over the last five weeks. He's finished as QB11 or QB12 in three of his last four outings.

He's done it despite averaging just 26.3 pass attempts per game over the last four.

How?

  1. Wilson has been super efficient, completing  72% of his passes with seven TDs vs. 0 INTs.
  2. He's running like it's 2014, averaging 7.5 carries for 24 yards and 0.3 TDs per game.

It's tough to say for sure that the rushing production will continue for the 35-year-old.

But the passing efficiency should against a Texans team sitting 26th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Plus, Wilson's Broncos are 3-point underdogs, so game flow could lead to more passing.

   

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Dolphins at Commanders (+5.6%)

2. Steelers vs. Cardinals (+4.9%)

3. Lions at Saints (+4.8%)

4. Eagles vs. 49ers (+3.5%)

5. Patriots vs. Chargers (-4.9%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

22. Seahawks at Cowboys (-24.7%)

23. Bengals at Jaguars (-30.0%)

24. Rams vs. Browns (-32.0%)

25. Panthers at Buccaneers (-33.1%)

26. Jets vs. Falcons (-38.9%)

 

5 Best RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Texans vs. Broncos (+51.5%)

2. Steelers vs. Cardinals (+35.3%)

3. Buccaneers vs. Panthers (+25.0%)

4. Titans vs. Colts (+23.3%)

5. Falcons at Jets (+21.5%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Saints vs. Lions (-17.4%)

23. Rams vs. Browns (-18.1%)

24. Seahawks at Cowboys (-21.0%)

25. Panthers vs. Buccaneers (-25.7%)

26. 49ers at Eagles (-32.8%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Devin Singletary, Texans

A quick glance at the box score doesn't show it, but Singletary dominated backfield work last week, despite RB Dameon Pierce's return.

Singletary played 82% of Houston's offensive snaps and set season highs with a 74% route rate and 19% target share.

I'm not necessarily banking on that level of passing-game usage continuing. Last week was the first time all season that Singletary topped two targets in a game.

But he's a good bet for nice rushing volume -- in an awesome matchup. The Broncos rank 31st in run defense DVOA and dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Denver's pass defense has been much better lately, but the run defense has not. The Broncos have coughed up 6.0 yards per carry to RBs over the past five weeks.

Antonio Gibson, Commanders

Gibson tallied six carries and four targets on a 46% snap rate in last week's blowout loss to the Cowboys.

It could be similar game script for the Commanders this weekend as 9-point underdogs to the Dolphins.

Gibson has averaged 4.1 targets in Washington's seven losses this season (vs. just 2.5 in four wins).

He's obviously a stronger play in full PPR leagues, where he sits 29th in our Week 13 RB Rankings.

 

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Dolphins at Commanders (+43.2%)

2. 49ers at Eagles (+31.9%)

3. Patriots vs. Chargers (+20.5%)

4. Panthers at Buccaneers (+20.3%)

5. Commanders vs. Dolphins (+20.0%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Jets vs. Falcons (-15.6%)

23. Seahawks at Cowboys (-17.3%)

24. Rams vs. Browns (-23.1%)

25. Buccaneers vs. Panthers (-24.5%)

26. Falcons at Jets (-36.4%)

 

CB Matchup Upgrades

Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Commanders CBs Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St. Juste, and Jartavius Martin

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Saints CBs Alontae Taylor and Isaac Yiadom

Chargers WRs Keenan Allen, Jalen Guyton, and Quentin Johnston vs. Patriots CBs J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, and Myles Bryant

49ers WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel vs. Eagles CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay

Buccaneers WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin vs. Panthers CBs Donte Jackson, David Long, and Troy Hill

Panthers WRs Adam Thielen vs. Buccaneers CBs Carlton Davis, Zyon McCollum, and Christian Izien

Steelers WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens vs. Cardinals CBs Kei’Trel Clark and Marco Wilson

 

CB Matchup Downgrades

Texans WRs Tank Dell and Nico Collins vs. Broncos CBs Patrick Surtain and Fabian Moreau

Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs. Browns CBs Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson

Drake London vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Cardinals WR Marquise Brown vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Steven Nelson, and Tavierre Thomas

Packers WRs Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed vs. Chiefs CBs L’Jarius Sneed, Jaylen Watson, and Trent McDuffie

 

Sneaky Starter

Curtis Samuel, Commanders

Samuel had his first big game of the season last week: nine catches on 12 targets for 100 yards.

He's been more of a floor play this year, catching 4+ balls in seven of 10 full games.

The Commanders should chuck it plenty again this Sunday as 9-point underdogs to the Dolphins.

Samuel's slot role will keep him away from Miami CBs Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard. Slot CB Kader Kohou ranks 93rd among 96 qualifying CBs in passer rating allowed in coverage.

   

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jaguars vs. Bengals (+30.0%)

2. Broncos at Texans (+28.8%)

3. Patriots vs. Chargers (+25.2%)

4. Browns at Rams (+23.9%)

5. Titans vs. Colts (+21.9%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Packers vs. Chiefs (-17.2%)

23. Buccaneers vs. Panthers (-19.7%)

24. Eagles vs. 49ers (-21.8%)

25. Colts at Titans (-36.7%)

26. Rams vs. Browns (-45.6%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Juwan Johnson, Saints

WR Michael Thomas is on IR.

WR Rashid Shaheed is expected to miss Week 13 with his quad injury.

Even with WR Chris Olave cleared from his concussion, there's a ton of opportunity this week for Johnson, who caught four of seven targets for 45 yards last week.

He gets a struggling Lions defense on Sunday that's allowed 3+ passing TDs in three of its last five games.

Detroit ranks 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs on the season.

  

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Falcons at Jets (+71.9%)

2. Dolphins at Commanders (+66.4%)

3. Buccaneers vs. Panthers (+58.5%)

4. Chargers at Patriots (+54.4%)

5. Rams vs. Browns (+30.4%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Browns at Rams (-37.1%)

23. Broncos at Texans (-41.5%)

24. Patriots vs. Chargers (-46.7%)

25. Seahawks at Cowboys (-54.6%)

26. Eagles vs. 49ers (-61.4%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Falcons

QB Tim Boyle threw two INTs last week (although one came on a Hail Mary). 

That actually dropped his career INT rate to a still-pathetic 7.0%. For perspective, Jimmy Garoppolo "leads" 33 qualified QBs this season with a 5.4% INT rate. No one else has an INT rate higher than 3.8%.

Atlanta's DST, while not great in real life, has a high ceiling and floor in this matchup. The Jets' 15.75-point implied total is second-lowest on the week.

Buccaneers

The Panthers have topped 17 points in just two of QB Bryce Young's 10 starts. They're implied for just 16.75 points this week.

The Bucs are a high-floor Week 13 spot starter, especially in fantasy leagues that award more points for limiting opponent scoring.

   

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Younghoe Koo at Jets (+40.5%)

2. Jason Sanders at Commanders (+40.3%)

3. Nick Folk vs. Colts (+31.9%)

4. Greg Zuerlein vs. Falcons (+30.5%)

5. Dustin Hopkins at Rams (+23.6%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Jake Moody at Eagles (-19.3%)

23. Evan McPherson at Jaguars (-30.5%)

24. Lucas Havrisik vs. Browns (-30.7%)

25. Jason Myers at Cowboys (-33.9%)

26. Anders Carlson vs. Chiefs (-45.6%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Wil Lutz, Broncos

Lutz has nailed a whopping 16 FGs during Denver's five-game winning streak.

He gets to kick indoors this Sunday against a Texans defense sitting 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers.

 

Related Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

9 hours ago

Want to catapult your fantasy team? You need later-round picks with big upside. These six fantasy football sleepers could make your season.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy

Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy

8:26am EST 2/21/24

This comprehensive fantasy football draft guide takes you pick-by-pick through 12-team PPR draft strategy. We'll help you crush your draft from any spot.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Team Names

Fantasy Football Team Names

12:23pm EST 2/20/24

Sometimes having fun is just as important as winning. Here are some tips for creating excellent fantasy football team names to make your league mates laugh.

Read More »
132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

1:18pm EST 2/13/24

From Lamar Jackson's dwindling rushing volume to Rashee Rice's elite second half, here are 132 things I learned doing 2024 fantasy football projections.

Read More »
Early Fantasy Football Rankings

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Rankings 2024

3:35pm EST 2/12/24

Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes? Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall? Let's answer those questions (and more) with a look at way too early 2024 fantasy football rankings.

Read More »
NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings

NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings

12:48pm EST 1/13/24

Hop inside to see NFL playoff fantasy rankings -- both by position and an overall top 50 -- for all of your postseason contests.

Read More »
FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy (Updated 1/11)

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy (Updated 1/11)

4:02pm EST 1/11/24

Travis Kelce has been an essential building block in this contest -- a chase for the $500K top prize. How should you build for the 2024 chase, though?

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?
Check out thisleague-winning info
2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play