Correctly predicting how many games each team will play is just as important to winning your playoff-long fantasy league as player selection. Maybe more important. More games = more fantasy points.
The landscape is a bit different this year with 14 teams, rather than 12, advancing to the postseason. The #1 seeds have a bigger advantage as the only teams getting 1st-round byes.
Who are the favorites to advance to the Super Bowl? Here are a few different metrics to point us in the right direction:
Odds to advance to the Super Bowl (courtesy of FanDuel sports book):
Football Outsiders playoff predictions:
Five Thirty Eight playoff predictions:
The Chiefs are the biggest favorite to make it to the Super Bowl according to all 3 sources. The Bills look like their biggest challenger, with the Ravens a potential AFC dark horse.
The NFC is more wide open. The Packers are the favorites, but the Saints, Bucs and Seahawks are all live to win the conference.
The rankings below are based on chalk: Chiefs over Bills in the AFC; Packers over Saints in the NFC. You can move guys up or down if you expect different teams to advance.
Top 60 Overall
1. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
2. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs
4. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
5. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
6. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints (Questionable, COVID)
7. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
8. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
9. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
10. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints (Questionable, ankle)
11. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
12. Tom Brady, QB, Bucs
13. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
14. Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs
15. Antonio Brown, WR, Bucs
16. Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
17. Ronald Jones, RB, Bucs
18. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
19. D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
20. Mike Evans, WR, Bucs (Questionable, knee)
21. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers
22. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans
23. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
24. Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks
25. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
26. Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens
27. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
28. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers
29. Chase Claypool, WR, Steelers
30. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (Questionable, ankle/hip)
31. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
32. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
33. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
34. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans
35. Robert Tonyan, TE, Packers
36. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Bucs
37. John Brown, WR, Bills
38. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Saints
39. Cole Beasley, WR, Bills (Questionable, knee)
40. Allen Robinson, WR, Bears
41. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington
42. Latavius Murray, RB, Saints
43. David Montgomery, RB, Bears
44. Corey Davis, WR, Titans
45. Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns
46. Zack Moss, RB, Bills
47. Devin Singletary, RB, Bills
48. Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens
49. Cam Akers, RB, Rams
50. Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington
51. Jared Cook, TE, Saints
52. Logan Thomas, TE, Washington
53. Eric Ebron, TE, Steelers
54. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
55. Robert Woods, WR, Rams
56. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears
57. Philip Rivers, QB, Colts
58. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Chiefs
59. Darrel Williams, RB, Chiefs
60. Allen Lazard, WR, Packers
QBs
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
3. Josh Allen, Bills
4. Tom Brady, Bucs
5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
6. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
7. Drew Brees, Saints
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
9. Ryan Tannehill, Titans
10. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
11. Philip Rivers, Colts
12. Baker Mayfield, Browns
13. Alex Smith, Washington
14. John Wolford, Rams
RBs
1. Aaron Jones, Packers
2. Alvin Kamara, Saints (Questionable, COVID)
3. Derrick Henry, Titans
4. Chris Carson, Seahawks
5. Ronald Jones, Bucs
6. J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (Questionable, ankle/hip)
8. Jonathan Taylor, Colts
9. Nick Chubb, Browns
10. Latavius Murray, Saints
11. David Montgomery, Bears
12. Zack Moss, Bills
13. Devin Singletary, Bills
14. Gus Edwards, Ravens
15. Cam Akers, Rams
16. Antonio Gibson, Washington
17. Le'Veon Bell, Chiefs
18. Darrel Williams, Chiefs
19. Kareem Hunt, Browns
20. James Conner, Steelers
21. J.D. McKissic, Washington
22. Nyheim Hines, Colts
23. Jamaal Williams, Packers
24. Carlos Hyde, Seahawks
25. Leonard Fournette, Bucs
26. Malcolm Brown, Rams
27. Darrell Henderson, Rams (Questionable, ankle)
28. Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
29. Benny Snell, Steelers
30. Mark Ingram, Ravens
31. Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears
32. Ty Montgomery, Saints
WRs
1. Davante Adams, Packers
2. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
3. Stefon Diggs, Bills
4. Michael Thomas, Saints (Questionable, ankle)
5. Chris Godwin, Bucs
6. Antonio Brown, Bucs
7. D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks
8. Mike Evans, Bucs (Questionable, knee)
9. Diontae Johnson, Steelers
10. A.J. Brown, Titans
11. Marquise Brown, Ravens
12. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
13. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers
14. Chase Claypool, Steelers
15. John Brown, Bills
16. Emmanuel Sanders, Saints
17. Cole Beasley, Bills (Questionable, knee)
18. Allen Robinson, Bears
19. Terry McLaurin, Washington
20. Corey Davis, Titans
21. Jarvis Landry, Browns
22. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
23. Robert Woods, Rams
24. Allen Lazard, Packers
25. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers
26. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs (Questionable, calf)
27. Cooper Kupp, Rams (Questionable, COVID)
28. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
29. Zach Pascal, Colts
30. Josh Reynolds, Rams
31. Van Jefferson, Rams
32. Michael Pittman, Colts
33. Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs
34. Gabriel Davis, Bills
35. Darnell Mooney, Bears
36. Scotty Miller, Bucs
37. Rashard Higgins, Browns
38. Cam Sims, Washington
39. Anthony Miller, Bears
40. Willie Snead, Ravens (Questionable, ankle)
41. James Washington, Steelers
42. Tre'Quan Smith, Saints (Questionable, ankle)
43. Marquez Callaway, Saints
44. Miles Boykin, Ravens
45. David Moore, Seahawks
46. Freddie Swain, Seahawks
47. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns
TEs
1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
2. Mark Andrews, Ravens
3. Robert Tonyan, Packers
4. Rob Gronkowski, Bucs
5. Jared Cook, Saints
6. Logan Thomas, Washington
7. Eric Ebron, Steelers
8. Dawson Knox, Bills
9. Austin Hooper, Browns
10. Jonnu Smith, Titans
11. Jacob Hollister, Seahawks
12. Cole Kmet, Bears
13. Tyler Higbee, Rams
14. Gerald Everett, Rams
15. Jimmy Graham, Bears
16. Will Dissly, Seahawks
17. Jack Doyle, Colts
18. Trey Burton, Colts
19. Cameron Brate, Bucs
20. Anthony Firkser, Titans
21. Mo Alie-Cox, Colts
Ks
1. Harrison Butker, Chiefs
2. Mason Crosby, Packers
3. Tyler Bass, Bills
4. Justin Tucker, Ravens
5. Wil Lutz, Saints
6. Ryan Succop, Bucs
7. Jason Myers, Seahawks
8. Chris Boswell, Steelers (Questionable, groin)
9. Stephen Gostkowski, Titans (Questionable, COVID)
10. Rodrigo Blankenship, Colts
11. Matt Gay, Rams
12. Cody Parkey, Browns
13. Cairo Santos, Bears
14. Dustin Hopkins, Washington
DSTs
1. Chiefs
2. Saints
3. Packers
4. Steelers
5. Bucs
6. Seahawks
7. Bills
8. Ravens
9. Washington
10. Rams
11. Browns
12. Bears
13. Colts
14. Titans
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