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Playoff Rankings

By Alex Korff | Updated on Tue, 23 May 2023 . 1:27 PM EDT

Correctly predicting how many games each team will play is just as important to winning your playoff-long fantasy league as player selection. Maybe more important. More games = more fantasy points.

The landscape is a bit different this year with 14 teams, rather than 12, advancing to the postseason. The #1 seeds have a bigger advantage as the only teams getting 1st-round byes.

Who are the favorites to advance to the Super Bowl? Here are a few different metrics to point us in the right direction:

Odds to advance to the Super Bowl (courtesy of FanDuel sports book):

Football Outsiders playoff predictions:

Five Thirty Eight playoff predictions:

The Chiefs are the biggest favorite to make it to the Super Bowl according to all 3 sources. The Bills look like their biggest challenger, with the Ravens a potential AFC dark horse.

The NFC is more wide open. The Packers are the favorites, but the Saints, Bucs and Seahawks are all live to win the conference.

The rankings below are based on chalk: Chiefs over Bills in the AFC; Packers over Saints in the NFC. You can move guys up or down if you expect different teams to advance.

Top 60 Overall

1. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

2. Davante Adams, WR, Packers

3. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

4. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills

5. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

6. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints (Questionable, COVID)

7. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

8. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

9. Josh Allen, QB, Bills

10. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints (Questionable, ankle)

11. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans

12. Tom Brady, QB, Bucs

13. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

14. Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs

15. Antonio Brown, WR, Bucs

16. Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks

17. Ronald Jones, RB, Bucs

18. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens

19. D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks

20. Mike Evans, WR, Bucs (Questionable, knee)

21. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers

22. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans

23. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens

24. Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

25. Drew Brees, QB, Saints

26. Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens

27. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks

28. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers

29. Chase Claypool, WR, Steelers

30. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (Questionable, ankle/hip)

31. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts

32. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

33. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

34. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans

35. Robert Tonyan, TE, Packers

36. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Bucs

37. John Brown, WR, Bills

38. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Saints

39. Cole Beasley, WR, Bills (Questionable, knee)

40. Allen Robinson, WR, Bears

41. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington

42. Latavius Murray, RB, Saints

43. David Montgomery, RB, Bears

44. Corey Davis, WR, Titans

45. Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns

46. Zack Moss, RB, Bills

47. Devin Singletary, RB, Bills

48. Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens

49. Cam Akers, RB, Rams

50. Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington

51. Jared Cook, TE, Saints

52. Logan Thomas, TE, Washington

53. Eric Ebron, TE, Steelers

54. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

55. Robert Woods, WR, Rams

56. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears

57. Philip Rivers, QB, Colts

58. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Chiefs

59. Darrel Williams, RB, Chiefs

60. Allen Lazard, WR, Packers


1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

3. Josh Allen, Bills

4. Tom Brady, Bucs

5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens

6. Russell Wilson, Seahawks

7. Drew Brees, Saints

8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

9. Ryan Tannehill, Titans

10. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears

11. Philip Rivers, Colts

12. Baker Mayfield, Browns

13. Alex Smith, Washington

14. John Wolford, Rams


1. Aaron Jones, Packers

2. Alvin Kamara, Saints (Questionable, COVID)

3. Derrick Henry, Titans

4. Chris Carson, Seahawks

5. Ronald Jones, Bucs

6. J.K. Dobbins, Ravens

7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (Questionable, ankle/hip)

8. Jonathan Taylor, Colts

9. Nick Chubb, Browns

10. Latavius Murray, Saints

11. David Montgomery, Bears

12. Zack Moss, Bills

13. Devin Singletary, Bills

14. Gus Edwards, Ravens

15. Cam Akers, Rams

16. Antonio Gibson, Washington

17. Le'Veon Bell, Chiefs

18. Darrel Williams, Chiefs

19. Kareem Hunt, Browns

20. James Conner, Steelers

21. J.D. McKissic, Washington

22. Nyheim Hines, Colts

23. Jamaal Williams, Packers

24. Carlos Hyde, Seahawks

25. Leonard Fournette, Bucs

26. Malcolm Brown, Rams

27. Darrell Henderson, Rams (Questionable, ankle)

28. Rashaad Penny, Seahawks

29. Benny Snell, Steelers

30. Mark Ingram, Ravens

31. Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears

32. Ty Montgomery, Saints


1. Davante Adams, Packers

2. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

3. Stefon Diggs, Bills

4. Michael Thomas, Saints (Questionable, ankle)

5. Chris Godwin, Bucs

6. Antonio Brown, Bucs

7. D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks

8. Mike Evans, Bucs (Questionable, knee)

9. Diontae Johnson, Steelers

10. A.J. Brown, Titans

11. Marquise Brown, Ravens

12. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

13. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers

14. Chase Claypool, Steelers

15. John Brown, Bills

16. Emmanuel Sanders, Saints

17. Cole Beasley, Bills (Questionable, knee)

18. Allen Robinson, Bears

19. Terry McLaurin, Washington

20. Corey Davis, Titans

21. Jarvis Landry, Browns

22. T.Y. Hilton, Colts

23. Robert Woods, Rams

24. Allen Lazard, Packers

25. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers

26. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs (Questionable, calf)

27. Cooper Kupp, Rams (Questionable, COVID)

28. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs

29. Zach Pascal, Colts

30. Josh Reynolds, Rams

31. Van Jefferson, Rams

32. Michael Pittman, Colts

33. Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs

34. Gabriel Davis, Bills

35. Darnell Mooney, Bears

36. Scotty Miller, Bucs

37. Rashard Higgins, Browns

38. Cam Sims, Washington

39. Anthony Miller, Bears

40. Willie Snead, Ravens (Questionable, ankle)

41. James Washington, Steelers

42. Tre'Quan Smith, Saints (Questionable, ankle)

43. Marquez Callaway, Saints

44. Miles Boykin, Ravens

45. David Moore, Seahawks

46. Freddie Swain, Seahawks

47. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns


1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs

2. Mark Andrews, Ravens

3. Robert Tonyan, Packers

4. Rob Gronkowski, Bucs

5. Jared Cook, Saints

6. Logan Thomas, Washington

7. Eric Ebron, Steelers

8. Dawson Knox, Bills

9. Austin Hooper, Browns

10. Jonnu Smith, Titans

11. Jacob Hollister, Seahawks

12. Cole Kmet, Bears

13. Tyler Higbee, Rams

14. Gerald Everett, Rams

15. Jimmy Graham, Bears

16. Will Dissly, Seahawks

17. Jack Doyle, Colts

18. Trey Burton, Colts

19. Cameron Brate, Bucs

20. Anthony Firkser, Titans

21. Mo Alie-Cox, Colts


1. Harrison Butker, Chiefs

2. Mason Crosby, Packers

3. Tyler Bass, Bills

4. Justin Tucker, Ravens

5. Wil Lutz, Saints

6. Ryan Succop, Bucs

7. Jason Myers, Seahawks

8. Chris Boswell, Steelers (Questionable, groin)

9. Stephen Gostkowski, Titans (Questionable, COVID)

10. Rodrigo Blankenship, Colts

11. Matt Gay, Rams

12. Cody Parkey, Browns

13. Cairo Santos, Bears

14. Dustin Hopkins, Washington


1. Chiefs

2. Saints

3. Packers

4. Steelers

5. Bucs

6. Seahawks

7. Bills

8. Ravens

9. Washington

10. Rams

11. Browns

12. Bears

13. Colts

14. Titans

Alex Korff Author Image
Alex Korff, Product Manager
Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

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